701
FXUS61 KRNK 191532
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1032 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE THE AREA KEEPING US FAIRLY DRY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS AND THE HRRR/CONSSHORT NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CLEARING TODAY. EVEN THE GAP IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE CLOUDS DRIFTING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN. SO HAVE
LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW LOCATIONS THAT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS INTO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. ONCE THIS
ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST, SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COLD ADVECTION STRATUS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD STAY
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE WEST IN
THE LOW/MID 40S AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL/SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2). CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY-SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 77.
A DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. COLD ADVECTION
INITIATING FRIDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INTENSIFY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO HEAD DOWNWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MODERATING SUNDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND -10C ACROSS THE
CWA.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL USHER IN THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR WHILE
THE UPSLOPE WINDS AND SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS COMBINE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV AND
MOSTLY AROUND AN INCH ELSEWHERE MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF I-77. AN
ISOLATED REPORT OF 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FLURRIES AND
A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE
RIDGE.
ONCE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY EVENING,
THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RISING ABOVE 0C
SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A VERY COLD WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S/30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MUCH OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 530 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) REMAINING COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT A BIT
LESS FRIGID THAN THE WEEKEND.
2) UNSETTLED, PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN, POTENTIALLY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER EVENT, TO THE
AREA JUST IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS.
AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. FOR OUR
REGION, THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PROMISES TO
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE ONSET FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS APPEARS TO BE
ANOTHER RAIN EVENT. NO WHITE CHRISTMAS EXPECTED THIS YEAR.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA MIDWEEK, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME AND
NEAR NORMAL AT NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND POINTS WEST TO THE 40S
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY...
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS COOL AIR
STRATUS SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE CIGS AT BLF/BCB/LWB
OVC/BKN 1000FT TO 2500FT THROUGH LATE MORNING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS MIDDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF ALL MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS COMPLETELY RETURN TO VFR.
MVFR RETURNS FOR MOST TERMINALS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL FOR THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. WINDS LESS
THAN 10KTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING COULD DROP VSBYS TO MVFR TO IFR. THESE SUB- VFR
CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATE SATURDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
VFR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page