075
FXUS61 KRNK 201934
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
234 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EXIT THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WHICH WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
FORECAST LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. A WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS
HAPPENS, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL ALOFT INTO THE
NEGATIVE 5 TO NEGATIVE 10 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LOW 40S, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MANY
STARTING OUT AS RAIN, THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT IS DIGGING SOUTH MAY PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT, AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY AS A RESULT SEE SOME
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE 4-6PM TIMEFRAME. THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES, AND MOTORISTS
SHOULD TAKE CAUTION IF CAUGHT IN A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL. AREAS
EAST OF SE WEST VIRGINIA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ACCUMULATIONS OUT
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS; HOWEVER, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR
MOST UPSLOPE AREAS, GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED;
HOWEVER, THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES. NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) VERY COLD CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES.
COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS LINGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE A WARMING
TREND. RESIDUAL WIND GUSTS (20-30 KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS) WILL KEEP
WIND CHILL VALUES LOW INTO THE 20S AND TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND WILL BRIEFLY CALM THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THIS LOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY NO PRECIPITATION IMPACT TO THE
AREA. 500MB RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, HOWEVER, WILL PROVIDE
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOWARDS THE
40S REGION WIDE). DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MENTIONED LOW,
THERE MAY BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEW POINT RECOVERY FROM THE
TEENS TOWARDS THE 30S.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW AND DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES
2) A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DIGS
INTO THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE TROUGHS THAT
ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BUT TIMING
AND IMPACT FOR OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS AND RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY DIVERT THESE STORM
SYSTEMS AWAY. ANY PATH THESE SYSTEMS TAKE WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED
BY THIS RIDGE SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE HEAD INTO THE CHRISTMAS
WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, THE RIDGE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND AND BRING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
30S REGION-WIDE. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS COULD BRING SOME WIND
CHILL VALUES TOWARDS THE UPPER 20S. THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDIER DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED, OR WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AT LEAST FOR BCB, LWB, AND BLF BY THIS
EVENING AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. SNOW
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY FOR BLF AND LWB. TERMINALS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE ROA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE.
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BLF BY 12
UTC SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS BLF, LWB, AND BCB
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUB-VFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS;
HOWEVER, BCB MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
-SHSN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR BLF AND LWB INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
AND COULD DROP VSBYS AS LOW AS IFR. THE MOUNTAINS RETURN TO VFR
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. VFR EAST OF THE THE MOUNTAINS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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