824
FXUS61 KRNK 210002
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
702 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EXIT THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WHICH WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
FORECAST LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. A WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.
2. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST WV, SOUTHWEST VA, AND
NORTHWEST NC INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE WEST, AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES,
AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH COULD MAKE MORNING
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS, SO BE SURE TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION
WHEN DRIVING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS
HAPPENS, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL ALOFT INTO THE
NEGATIVE 5 TO NEGATIVE 10 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LOW 40S, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MANY
STARTING OUT AS RAIN, THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT IS DIGGING SOUTH MAY PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT, AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY AS A RESULT SEE SOME
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE 4-6PM TIMEFRAME. THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES, AND MOTORISTS
SHOULD TAKE CAUTION IF CAUGHT IN A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL. AREAS
EAST OF SE WEST VIRGINIA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ACCUMULATIONS OUT
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS; HOWEVER, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR
MOST UPSLOPE AREAS, GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED;
HOWEVER, THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES. NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) VERY COLD CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES.
COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS LINGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE A WARMING
TREND. RESIDUAL WIND GUSTS (20-30 KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS) WILL KEEP
WIND CHILL VALUES LOW INTO THE 20S AND TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND WILL BRIEFLY CALM THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THIS LOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY NO PRECIPITATION IMPACT TO THE
AREA. 500MB RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, HOWEVER, WILL PROVIDE
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOWARDS THE
40S REGION WIDE). DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MENTIONED LOW,
THERE MAY BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEW POINT RECOVERY FROM THE
TEENS TOWARDS THE 30S.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW AND DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
2) A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DIGS
INTO THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE TROUGHS THAT
ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BUT TIMING
AND IMPACT FOR OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS AND RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY DIVERT THESE STORM
SYSTEMS AWAY. ANY PATH THESE SYSTEMS TAKE WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED
BY THIS RIDGE SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE HEAD INTO THE CHRISTMAS
WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, THE RIDGE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND AND BRING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
30S REGION-WIDE. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS COULD BRING SOME WIND
CHILL VALUES TOWARDS THE UPPER 20S. THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDIER DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY, WITH VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND SUB VFR
WEST. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH VFR PERSISTING IN THE EAST, AND RETURNING TO THE
WEST BY AROUND 15Z SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LINGERING AT KBLF UNTIL
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN SOUTHEAST
WV AND SOUTHWEST VA, BUT ARE MOSTLY LIGHT, THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KBLF AND KLWB, ENDING AROUND 12Z OR
SO, AND SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH KBCB THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLF AND KLWB THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, WHILE CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MIDDAY, MAINLY FOR TERMINALS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE MOUNTAINS RETURN TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN EAST OF THE THE MOUNTAINS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON AVIATION IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/EB
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS/EB
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