177
FXUS61 KRNK 210737
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT COMES TO AN END BY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS NOW PUSHING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. FLOW HAS
NOW TURNED NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AS WELL, BUT A STRONGER
PUSH AT 850MB WILL COME LATER TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING IN
FAVORED WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WITH UPSLOPE STRATUS AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION,
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH, IF ANY DAYTIME WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LITTLE MORE SUN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 40S.
VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND PERHAPS
A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS SHOULD GO
LIGHT/CALM, THEREFORE NOT MUCH CONCERN OF COLD WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) VERY COLD CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES.
COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS LINGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE A WARMING
TREND. RESIDUAL WIND GUSTS (20-30 KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS) WILL KEEP
WIND CHILL VALUES LOW INTO THE 20S AND TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND WILL BRIEFLY CALM THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THIS LOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY NO PRECIPITATION IMPACT TO THE
AREA. 500MB RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, HOWEVER, WILL PROVIDE
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOWARDS THE
40S REGION WIDE). DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MENTIONED LOW,
THERE MAY BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEW POINT RECOVERY FROM THE
TEENS TOWARDS THE 30S.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW AND DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
2) A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DIGS
INTO THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE TROUGHS THAT
ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BUT TIMING
AND IMPACT FOR OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS AND RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY DIVERT THESE STORM
SYSTEMS AWAY. ANY PATH THESE SYSTEMS TAKE WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED
BY THIS RIDGE SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE HEAD INTO THE CHRISTMAS
WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, THE RIDGE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND AND BRING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
30S REGION-WIDE. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS COULD BRING SOME WIND
CHILL VALUES TOWARDS THE UPPER 20S. THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDIER DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR STRATUS REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE APPALACHIANS,
RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS. UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES AS WELL,
REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES TO 2SM OR LESS FOR BLF. VFR TO CONTINUE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH STRATUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE IT ERODE TONIGHT AND
VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE 24 HOURS TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON AVIATION IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG
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