195
FXUS61 KRNK 212335
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
635 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE
AREA. DURING THIS TIME, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION, AFTER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 635 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, THOUGH UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING AND CALM WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
WEST, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WITH SNOW COVER, LIKE BURKES
GARDEN VA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS, AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
850MB TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY MORNING'S LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, AND THE MID 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL, WHILE
IT WILL BE COLD, IT WILL BE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY WEATHER WISE
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARMING TREND AND LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK. BOTH ARE FROM SHORTWAVES BUT AT OPPOSITE
SIDES OF THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE FROM OUR NORTH AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SYSTEM MAY
GRAZE US AND SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH, PROVIDING A SOURCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF OUR
REGION. ANOTHER SIGNAL (THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAKER) IS FROM A
DISTURBANCE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO CLING TO THE COAST BEFORE HEADING TO THE ATLANTIC, BUT
IF ITS PATH MOVES MORE NORTH AND INLAND, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS CURRENTLY GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURE WISE, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING THE FRIGID
WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BRING REGION WIDE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S/30S.
MODEST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BRING SOME WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE
20S. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RECOVER FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS TOWARDS THE 20S/30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS HIGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES
2) RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD ASSUMING RIDGING PATTERN BLOCKS
STORM SYSTEMS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ABOUT IN THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA WHILE 500MB RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. VEERING WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S. MILD WINDS BETWEEN 5-10KTS MAY KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
AND 20S, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THERE ARE SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS THAT FORM TO OUR WEST BUT THEIR
PATHS ARE DEPENDENT ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MOST SYSTEMS DIVERT TO OUR NORTH
AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE REGION. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE AROUND THE LAST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER BUT
THIS EVENT IS TOO FAR OUT AND HAS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE,
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THOUGH
STILL A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VA AND NORTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS, BUT NOT
IMPACTING AREA TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR WEST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT,
CLEARING OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES
IN THE EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SUNDAY, BEFORE TURNING MORE
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT REMAINING WESTERLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
UP TO 5 KNOTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL TERMINALS BY
SUNDAY MIDDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON AVIATION IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AS/EB
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS/EB
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