438
FXUS61 KRNK 150950
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BUILDS IN FOR TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4AM THIS MORNING
- NO CHANGES TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
PRESSURE RISES WILL STILL BE IN THE 508MB/6HR RANGE THIS MORNING,
BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WIND SPEEDS. SEE NO ISSUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE EXPIRING AT 4AM.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE DRIER
AIR ADVANCING IN TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS MORNING.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED BELOW 5 DEGREES AS FAR EAST AS THE
WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA BORDER AND OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS WERE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND FROM MOUNT ROGERS INTO
EASTERN TENNESSE. AS WIND SPEEDS AND THEREFORE UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING, EVEN THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE.
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVES IN THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.
STILL ENOUGH TIME IN THE EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY TO SEE A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPERATURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE THE
WIND DECOUPLES. WILL BE LOWER THEN GUIDANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE STAYING CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE TODAY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WARM FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH IN CANADA WILL
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF UPSLOPE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST WESTERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. AREAS ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER
ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL AMOUNT WITH ABOUT 1-3
INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE AID OF A RELATIVELY SMALL LOW
LEVEL JET. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH, PARTICULARLY FOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
CALM DOWN AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NEAR THE REGION'S
PROXIMITY ON FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS AS A
RESULT WILL GO FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND WITH IT, A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND STARTS. VEERING OF WINDS (WARM AIR
ADVECTION) WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE TO MELT SNOW THAT IS STILL ON THE
GROUND.
BRIEFLY GOING INTO DEPTH ON THE TEMPERATURES: THURSDAY MORNING WILL
STILL BE COLD BUT A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE UPPER TEENS & 20S TOWARDS THE EAST. WIND
CHILLS, HOWEVER, WILL STILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 IN MORE ELEVATED
LOCATIONS. THURSDAY HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PART OF THE
REGION. PIEDMONT/FOOTHILL HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. MORNING WIND CHILLS REGION WIDE WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LARGER EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS A WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. IF THE STORM ARRIVES EARLY IN THE MORNING, THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR AT LEAST THE COUNTIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF THE STORM ARRIVES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEFINITELY BE EITHER SNOW OR
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE MORE WESTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST WV, ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUNNY SKIES WITH THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH BEFORE REAGENT CLOUD
COVER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
.. AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES TO OUR EAST, LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN SOUTHEASTERN WV AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN VA. A LARGE AND POWERFUL ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONCURRENTLY BEGIN ITS DESCENT OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WITH A 1056MB CENTER PROGGED TO TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH COLD AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF. BY
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
DURING THE DAY WILL STAY WELL UNDER FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES AND THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIRMASS COMES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, WE MAY BE MONITORING FOR A FEW RECORDS
NEXT WEEK. NOTHING IS SET IN STONE FOR NEXT WEEK YET, THOUGH.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 618 PM EST TUESDAY...
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT BLF, MAYBE LWB. CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS BCB BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3000FT.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SURGES IN THIS EVENING, SO ANOTHER
UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO OCCUR POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 35KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT/05Z IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE MORNING, WHILE
WINDS SUBSIDE.
AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT
AND MOUNTAIN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ508.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...RCS/WP
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