727
FXUS61 KRNK 151952
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
252 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 148 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CLIPPER TO BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
3) BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN THU AFTERNOON-EVENING.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A CLIPPER MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARM
FRONT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGS SNOW THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY BUT
TRACK OF THE BEST LIFT TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE
SEE AN UPPER WAVE PIVOTING ACROSS SW VA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EAST TO THE I-
81 CORRIDOR, WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THIS SYSTEM IS
FAST MOVING, BUT EXPECT ENOUGH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
GREENBRIER, 2-6 INCHES WITH UP TO 8 TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THU-THU NIGHT. SNOW ELSEWHERE WILL BE LESS AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS, EXCEPT PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES TOWARD THE HIGHER RIDGES WEST
OF I-77 IN MERCER COUNTY.
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT EXPECT COLD TEMPS BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS LOW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MOST, WITH
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS.
MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST THURSDAY WITH MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
ELSEWHERE AND WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION LOOKING AT MID 40S EAST TO
30S WEST.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WITH
MODEST PRESSURE RISES MAY BRING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THURSDAY EVENING. ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TAPER OFF AND END
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILDER THANKS TO LIMITED ADVECTION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER
WITH 20S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
NEAR THE REGION'S PROXIMITY ON FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS AS A RESULT WILL GO FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
AND WITH IT, A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND STARTS. VEERING OF
WINDS (WARM AIR ADVECTION) WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE TO MELT SNOW THAT IS
STILL ON THE GROUND.
THE LARGER EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS A WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. IF THE STORM ARRIVES EARLY IN THE MORNING, THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR AT LEAST THE COUNTIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF THE STORM ARRIVES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEFINITELY BE EITHER SNOW OR
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
FRIDAY WILL OFFER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES WITH THE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH BEFORE REAGENT CLOUD COVER RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
BEHIND A WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST, LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN SOUTHEASTERN WV
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN VA. A LARGE AND POWERFUL ZONE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONCURRENTLY BEGIN ITS DESCENT OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A 1056MB CENTER PROGGED TO TRACK
EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH COLD AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO FALL QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND UPSLOPE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL STAY WELL UNDER FREEZING
FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND THE CENTER OF
THIS COLD AIRMASS COMES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, WE MAY BE
MONITORING FOR A FEW RECORDS NEXT WEEK. NOTHING IS SET IN STONE
FOR NEXT WEEK YET, THOUGH.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
WEST WINDS ARE GOING TO RUN 5-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL
WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT.
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH MID DECK
ARRIVING. SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
BLF/LWB BEFORE 18Z THU. AT THAT TIME WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
AROUND 20-25KTS, BUT THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AFTER THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A FRONT AND MOUNTAIN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER AND
VFR.
A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/WP
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