975
FXUS61 KRNK 160005
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A
CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND. A VERY COLD AIRMASS
ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY BEGINNING AT 7AM THURSDAY THROUGH 7AM FRIDAY.
A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AREA-WIDE WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THANKFULLY, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, KEEPING WIND
CHILLS SIMILAR TO AIR TEMPERATURES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS TOMORROW, AND COULD SPREAD AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, AS SNOW TOTALS OF
2-8" IS POSSIBLE. SNOW CONTINUES WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CLIPPER TO BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
3) BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN THU AFTERNOON-EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARM
FRONT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGS SNOW THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
BUT TRACK OF THE BEST LIFT TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE SEE AN UPPER WAVE PIVOTING ACROSS SW VA THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC
MOUNTAINS AND EAST TO THE I- 81 CORRIDOR, WITH SNOW SHOWERS
FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THIS SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING, BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER, 2-6 INCHES
WITH UP TO 8 TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. SNOW ELSEWHERE WILL BE LESS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS,
EXCEPT PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES TOWARD THE HIGHER RIDGES WEST OF
I-77 IN MERCER COUNTY.
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT EXPECT COLD TEMPS BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS LOW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MOST, WITH
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS.
MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST THURSDAY WITH MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
ELSEWHERE AND WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION LOOKING AT MID 40S EAST TO
30S WEST.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WITH
MODEST PRESSURE RISES MAY BRING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THURSDAY EVENING. ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TAPER OFF AND END
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILDER THANKS TO LIMITED ADVECTION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER
WITH 20S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY FRIDAY
2) RAIN SATURDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WINDS DIMINISHING. WITH A
FULL DAY OF SUN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS
AND 40S FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...A PLEASANT DAY BY JANUARY
STANDARDS WITHOUT THE WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE HOW QUICK TEMPERATURES CAN FALL
BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WE SAY THIS
BECAUSE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE P-TYPE
GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING PER ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THERE ARE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. ALL COMBINED THEY MAKE UP WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT WILL SEND US INTO THE DEEP
FREEZE NEXT WEEK. THE LEAD WAVE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO PULL IN
SOME WARM AIR ALOFT (1-3 DEG C NEAR 800 MB), SO P-TYPE WILL
GENERALLY BE DETERMINED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A HODGE PODGE
OF ALL P-TYPES AT THE ONSET, BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO EITHER RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH RESPECT TO WINTRY AMOUNTS, BUT THE OVERALL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE... GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING BEFORE 3AM SATURDAY, WITH ARRIVAL
OCCURRING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...GENERALLY REACHING THE I-77
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK THEN OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING. ATTM, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
COLD AIR RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE AND A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOWER 48. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS WEEKEND, THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS EXPANDING EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SENDING US INTO THE DEEP FREEZE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
85H TEMPERATURES OF M20 TO M25 DEG C ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE
REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 15-25 DEGREES F, MOUNTAINS-PIEDMONT RESPECTIVELY, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES OF 5 BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO F MOUNTAINS-PIEDMONT
RESPECTIVELY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON AND COLDEST
SINCE DECEMBER OF 2022. GUIDANCE IS ALSO STARTING TO PICK UP ON A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LATE NEXT WEEK THAT MAY EMANATE FROM THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...YIELDING WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OUR AREA FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OVERCAST SKIES MOVE IN MID MORNING FOR LYH/DAN, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED, AND SKIES CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN FOR BLF/LWB AROUND 15Z WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z, WITH
BCB ALSO SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE, WITH BCB HAVING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z. BLF WILL ALSO
SEE CIGS REDUCE AFTER 21Z, DOWN TO IFR AS SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASE, WITH VISIBILITY REDUCING AS WELL FOR BLF/LWB/BCB.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR
ALL TERMINALS, BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR BLF/LWB/BCB THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. LYH/DAN WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASE, BUT GUSTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER, WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A FRONT AND MOUNTAIN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER AND
VFR.
A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...JCB/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JCB/WP
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