790  
FXUS61 KRNK 161847  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
147 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY BRING SNOW AND GUSTY WIND  
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND  
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC  
AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER  
TODAY AND TONIGHT  
 
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MERCER AND SUMMER COUNTIES  
 
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE EASTERN UNITED STATES  
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE UPPER JET AND POSITIVE  
VORTICITY ADVECTION, FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE LIFT WILL BE IN THE 10AM-  
10PM TIME FRAME. ENOUGH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION, AROUND 0.5  
INCHES AND LARGE ENOUGH SNOW RATIOS, ROUGHLY 15:1 TO GET SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA OF 2 TO 8 INCHES. SOME  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.  
ALSO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELATIVE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON  
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SQUALLS OR AT LEAST NARROW BANDS OF  
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. COLDER AIR ALOFT DOES ARRIVE IN THE AREA  
AROUND THAT TIME. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE  
AIR MASS IS STARTING THE DAY WELL BELOW 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE  
WATER AND SOME OF THE EARLY SNOWFALL MAY GO INTO SATURATING THE AIR  
MASS INSTEAD OF ACCUMULATING. BUT, EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES ARE BACK UP AROUND 0.25 INCHES. LATEST HRRR HAS THE SNOW  
REACHING MOST OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 7AM AND 10AM.  
 
THIS FEATURE GOES BY WITH THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST BY  
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE  
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST 850MB WIND  
FROM 00Z/7PM TO 06Z/1AM WITH GOOD PRESSURE RISES, 5-8MB IN 6 HOURS  
AT THE SAME TIME. WILL ASSESS AGAIN TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A WIND  
ADVISORY IS NEEDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS DROP  
OFF QUICKLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  
 
UPPER RIDGING ON FRIDAY AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN  
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL. STAYED CLOSE TO A NBM/LAV GUIDANCE BLEND  
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1) WINTRY MIX TURNS TO RAIN SATURDAY  
 
2) UPSLOPE SNOW SUNDAY  
 
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING,  
AND BRING A FRONT THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE IN THE  
MORNING WILL BE KEY TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE, AS MOST OF THE  
MOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL HAVE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR  
32F. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX, LIKELY SNOW/SLEET,  
BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SLEET, AND EVENTUALLY RAIN AROUND MID-  
MORNING. IN SOME OF THE PEAK ELEVATIONS AROUND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF  
NC AND IN SOUTHEASTERN WV, SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE  
ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH HOW BRIEF THAT WINDOW IS, HOWEVER, ICING IMPACTS  
WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIKELY RESTRICTED TO RAISED SURFACES, BRANCHES,  
AND OVERPASSES. IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ICE TO FORM ON  
TREATED ROADS, AND WITH MORE RAIN COMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
SATURDAY, AND EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S, ICING WILL NOT  
BE A MAJOR ISSUE.  
 
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, COLD  
AIR WILL FILL IN QUICKLY, BUT IT WILL ALSO BE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.  
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN BACK TO SNOW, BUT COVERAGE WILL MOSTLY BE  
HELD TO WESTERN UPSLOPE ZONES. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, RANGING  
FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
1) BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK  
 
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRIGID ARCTIC  
AIR MASS WILL TAKE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN  
CONUS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL  
CREATE A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE COUNTRY, PUSHING  
FRIGID AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR  
MASS WILL FEATURE 850MB TEMPS IN THE 20-25C BELOW ZERO RANGE, AND  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN -5F FOR PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS  
OF WV, AND +10-15F IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES MAY BE  
CLOSE TO OR TIE SOME COLD RECORDS, AND IT WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME OF  
THE COLDEST AIR WE'VE SEEN THIS SEASON.  
 
A LATE WEEK WAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH  
VALLEY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW IN SOME LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS  
COULD BE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR WINTER WEATHER IN OUR  
FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 115 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW  
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND TO 25KT  
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED CEILINGS IN PLACE PER 18Z  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH BASES IN THE 5KFT TO 7KFT  
RANGE.  
 
PASSING DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS TO  
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEGINNING AROUND 17/00Z. BRUNT OF THE  
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING 40 TO 45KT GUSTS ALONG THE CREST OF THE  
BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW HOURS, MAINLY DURING THE 17/03Z TO THE  
17/09Z TIMEFRAME, BEFORE ENERGY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, ALLOWING  
WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL USHER  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LOW STRATOCU CEILINGS, WITH BASES IN THE  
1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE AS FAR EAST AS THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR FURTHER EAST, BREAKING UP IN DOWNSLOPE  
WINDFLOW. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT BLF AND LWB WITH  
VISIBILITIES THAT MAY FALL TO LESS THAN 1SM OVER SHORT PERIODS  
OF TIME. SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN SPURTS BETWEEN 17/00Z THROUGH  
17/12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. CLOUDS WILL LIKEWISE DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER  
17/12Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY  
17/18Z UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
AVIATION OUTLOOK...  
 
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AS AN APPROACHING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
AND POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE  
REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH  
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD, DRY AND VFR.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AMS  
NEAR TERM...AMS  
SHORT TERM...VFJ  
LONG TERM...VFJ  
AVIATION...AMS/NF  
 
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