341
FXUS61 KRNK 170852
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMER CLEAR DAY TODAY BEFORE A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM BRINGS
IN RAIN/SNOW FOR THE REGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A VERY FRIGID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
AND BRING IN EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERWARDS, A GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND HEAD
EASTWARD FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED.
2) ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARMER AND SUNNIER DAY.
3) WEEKEND STORM TO ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
ARRIVES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM A LITTLE AS A SURFACE HIGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT ANOTHER DAY OF SUN REGION WIDE
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. A LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CREEPS TOWARDS THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUD COVER
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEEKEND'S STORM IS PROJECTED TO START
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UP UNTIL 7AM (12Z) SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER SNOW OR RAIN OR A MIX
REGION WIDE. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE 20S
TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE 40S TOWARDS THE EAST. SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION WIDE WITH SOME
ELEVATED AREAS HAVING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
2) WINDY, BECOMING BITTERLY COLD, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AT THE ONSET TIME
OF THIS PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK WARM
NOSE IS EVIDENT IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW, TO SLEET, TO
POTENTIALLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. THE LIMITED DURATION OF FROZEN/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION AND THE LIMITED QPF OVERALL FROM HAVING TO
OVERCOME AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS, WILL LIMIT ICE/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. NONETHELESS, COULD CERTAINLY SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE WARRANTED WITH LATER
FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WEAK
WEDGING. QPF LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE, THUS AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY RESULT IN
FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AND ALSO BRING THE FIRST SURGE OF WHAT WILL PROVE TO BE THE
COLDEST ARCTIC AIR TO VISIT THIS REGION IN SEVERAL YEARS.
PRECIPITATION ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL MOSTLY END BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND TRANSITION TO TYPICAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
ON MONDAY, THE FIRST OF TWO BRUTALLY COLD SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA IN THE FORM OF A 1044MB ARCTIC HIGH.
THIS FIRST SURGE WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE NEXT MIDWEEK
SURGE. LOOK FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND ON MONDAY WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM
-4C EARLY IN THE DAY TO NEARLY -20C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY
AS NOTED BY WPC...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS IN THE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TRACKS. MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO 80
PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST HAS
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WARM ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER PAST WEDNESDAY FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM EST FRIDAY...
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF VFR CLOUDS FROM 3-5KFT FROM THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY BE MVFR AT BLF AND LWB THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUSTS FROM 20 TO 35 KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL
11Z/6AM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING VFR BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWERING THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AMD NOT SKED WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS DUE COMMS ISSUES WITH THE 05Z
OBSERVATIONS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD, DRY AND VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
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