797
FXUS61 KRNK 171114
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
614 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMER CLEAR DAY TODAY BEFORE A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM BRINGS
IN RAIN/SNOW FOR THE REGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A VERY FRIGID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
AND BRING IN EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERWARDS, A GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND HEAD
EASTWARD FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED.
2) ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARMER AND SUNNIER DAY.
3) WEEKEND STORM TO ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
ARRIVES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM A LITTLE AS A SURFACE HIGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT ANOTHER DAY OF SUN REGION WIDE
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. A LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CREEPS TOWARDS THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUD COVER
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEEKEND'S STORM IS PROJECTED TO START
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UP UNTIL 7AM (12Z) SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER SNOW OR RAIN OR A MIX
REGION WIDE. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE 20S
TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE 40S TOWARDS THE EAST. SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION WIDE WITH SOME
ELEVATED AREAS HAVING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TRANSITION FROM WINTRY MIX INTO RAIN SATURDAY
2) SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
A SHORTWAVE CAUSING A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO LIQUID RAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL QUICKLY, TURNING PRECIP
OVER TO SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SUNDAY, BUT CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS.
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND BRING IN BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND ENDING SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS COULD DROP AS LOW AS -5F AT THE SURFACE MONDAY NIGHT, AND
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE
MOST INTENSE COLD SNAPS TO HIT THE REGION IN SEVERAL YEARS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY
AS NOTED BY WPC...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS IN THE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TRACKS. MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO 80
PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST HAS
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WARM ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER PAST WEDNESDAY FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...
TERMINALS KBLF AND KLWB WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
BY SKIES WILL CLEAR REGION WIDE AND ALL TERMINALS WILL ENJOY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING BACK OVERCAST SKIES FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY TOMORROW (SATURDAY) MORNING. MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KLWB, KBCB, KBLF. MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN DUE TO WEATHER AND LOW CLOUDS AT KBLF AND BCB. HOWEVER, KLWB
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO HAVE THE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS AND REACH IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE SIDE NOTE: THERE ARE SPOTTY SIGNALS FOR WIND SHEAR AT RADFORD
NEAR KBCB, BUT NOTHING DEFINTIVE AT THIS TERMINAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS SUNDAY AS THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. KBCB, KLWB, AND KBLF ARE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE SNOW AND SO MVFR CONDITIONS. BRUTALLY COLD WEATHER
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND
VFR FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. THERE IS A SOUTHERN LOW THAT WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEK BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO EFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CG
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