073
FXUS61 KRNK 172041
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMER CLEAR DAY TODAY BEFORE A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM BRINGS
IN RAIN/SNOW FOR THE REGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A VERY FRIGID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
AND BRING IN EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERWARDS, A GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND HEAD
EASTWARD FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1030 AM EST FRIDAY...
FOR THE NEAR TERM UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCU
DECK CONTINUES TO MIX/SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS ON TRACK SO FAR TO REBOUND
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD SEEM QUITE PLEASANT
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. FOCUS REMAINS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS PHASES WITH THE
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTS WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND THEN
POPS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR A WINTRY MIX.
PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE INITIAL P-TYPES OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WITH A POSSIBLE GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NW GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN THE LOWER COLUMNS WARM
DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN PRIMARILY ALL RAIN. THE CAA KICKING
IN FOR SUNDAY IN THE SHORT TERM IS GOING TO BE BRINGING THE
GREATER CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY) AS A LINGERING MOISTURE
AXIS REMAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS CAN TRAVERSE THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED.
2) ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARMER AND SUNNIER DAY.
3) WEEKEND STORM TO ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
ARRIVES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM A LITTLE AS A SURFACE HIGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT ANOTHER DAY OF SUN REGION WIDE
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. A LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CREEPS TOWARDS THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUD COVER
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEEKEND'S STORM IS PROJECTED TO START
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UP UNTIL 7AM (12Z) SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER SNOW OR RAIN OR A MIX
REGION WIDE. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE 20S
TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE 40S TOWARDS THE EAST. SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION WIDE WITH SOME
ELEVATED AREAS HAVING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY.
2). BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND.
3). INCREASED THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE
OF A MID-ATLANTIC DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT IS DEEPER AND
MORE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL SUNDAY THAN EXPECTED IN
PRIOR DAY'S FORECASTS. THIS DEEPENING WILL INITIATE THE ARCTIC
SURGE BRINGING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE DECEMBER 2022.
HOWEVER, UNLIKE THE LATE DECEMBER 2022 COLD OUTBREAK, THIS WILL
LAST MUCH LONGER, LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT A MINIMUM.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE ON A NON-DIURNAL TREND FROM THE 30S
IN THE MORNING TO THE TEENS BY SUNSET WEST AND 20S EAST. BY
MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO EVEN NEAR 0 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT. THUS, THE NEED FOR AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH.
WITH RESPECT TO SNOW, MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE VA COAST SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. A NOTABLE INCREASE FROM
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES NOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE RNK PIEDMONT COUNTIES,
SUCH AS THE LYNCHBURG AND LEXINGTON AREAS. THE HEAVIER SNOW
AMOUNTS (I.E., ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA) WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF I-64 AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES GOING UP THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE WILL BEGIN WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. HENCE, THE WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD AND WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME COLD WATCH ISSUED.
2). ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
BITTER ARCTIC COLD EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE DECEMBER 2022, BUT MUCH LONGER LASTING THAN
THAT COLD SPELL. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AS SOON AS MONDAY
MORNING AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 20 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL ICEBOX
LOCATIONS LIKE BURKES GARDEN AND LEWISBURG MIDWEEK. HENCE THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH WHICH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COLDEST COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LARGE AREAS OF THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MEET WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL VERY SLOWLY MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE UNTIL FRIDAY.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, THE VERY COLD/DRY AIR APPEARS TO
WIN OUT FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED TRACKING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE TUE-WED SYSTEM IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW OF
1-2 INCHES TO MAINLY THE PIEDMONT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD
ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAINLY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...
TERMINALS KBLF AND KLWB WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
BY SKIES WILL CLEAR REGION WIDE AND ALL TERMINALS WILL ENJOY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING BACK OVERCAST SKIES FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY TOMORROW (SATURDAY) MORNING. MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KLWB, KBCB, KBLF. MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN DUE TO WEATHER AND LOW CLOUDS AT KBLF AND BCB. HOWEVER, KLWB
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO HAVE THE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS AND REACH IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE SIDE NOTE: THERE ARE SPOTTY SIGNALS FOR WIND SHEAR AT RADFORD
NEAR KBCB, BUT NOTHING DEFINITIVE AT THIS TERMINAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS SUNDAY AS THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. KBCB, KLWB, AND KBLF ARE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE SNOW AND SO MVFR CONDITIONS. BRUTALLY COLD WEATHER
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND
VFR FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THERE IS A SOUTHERN LOW THAT
WILL BE TRAVELING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEK BUT IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO EFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020.
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...AB/CG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...CG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page