373
FXUS61 KRNK 172119
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM BRINGS IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN A SWITCH TO SOME
SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
JUST HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A VERY
FRIGID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW AND BRING IN EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERWARDS, A GULF COAST
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND HEAD EASTWARD FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 400 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN MAINLY ALL RAIN
BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.
2) BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO SOME SNOW FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS PHASES WITH THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTS WIDESPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND THEN POPS INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR A WINTRY MIX. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE INITIAL P-TYPES OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WITH POSSIBLE
POCKETS OF A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN THE LOWER COLUMNS WARM DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN
PRIMARILY ALL RAIN. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD MAINLY MELT BY MID MORNING WITH
LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE CAA KICKING IN FOR SUNDAY IN THE SHORT TERM IS GOING TO BE
BRINGING THE GREATER CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
(POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY) AS A LINGERING
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS CAN TRAVERSE THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY.
2). BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND.
3). INCREASED THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE
OF A MID-ATLANTIC DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT IS DEEPER AND
MORE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL SUNDAY THAN EXPECTED IN
PRIOR DAY'S FORECASTS. THIS DEEPENING WILL INITIATE THE ARCTIC
SURGE BRINGING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE DECEMBER 2022.
HOWEVER, UNLIKE THE LATE DECEMBER 2022 COLD OUTBREAK, THIS WILL
LAST MUCH LONGER, LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT A MINIMUM.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE ON A NON-DIURNAL TREND FROM THE 30S
IN THE MORNING TO THE TEENS BY SUNSET WEST AND 20S EAST. BY
MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO EVEN NEAR 0 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT. THUS, THE NEED FOR AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH.
WITH RESPECT TO SNOW, MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE VA COAST SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. A NOTABLE INCREASE FROM
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES NOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE RNK PIEDMONT COUNTIES,
SUCH AS THE LYNCHBURG AND LEXINGTON AREAS. THE HEAVIER SNOW
AMOUNTS (I.E., ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA) WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF I-64 AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES GOING UP THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE WILL BEGIN WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. HENCE, THE WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD AND WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME COLD WATCH ISSUED.
2). ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
BITTER ARCTIC COLD EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE DECEMBER 2022, BUT MUCH LONGER LASTING THAN
THAT COLD SPELL. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AS SOON AS MONDAY
MORNING AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 20 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL ICEBOX
LOCATIONS LIKE BURKES GARDEN AND LEWISBURG MIDWEEK. HENCE THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH WHICH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COLDEST COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LARGE AREAS OF THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MEET WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL VERY SLOWLY MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE UNTIL FRIDAY.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, THE VERY COLD/DRY AIR APPEARS TO
WIN OUT FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED TRACKING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE TUE-WED SYSTEM IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW OF
1-2 INCHES TO MAINLY THE PIEDMONT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD
ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAINLY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 400 PM EST FRIDAY...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME CIRRUS AND
ALTO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THIS EVENING THEN MVFR TO IFR CIGS FOR
THE MORNING WITH INCREASED WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN
SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY -RA BY MID MORNING
THEN COULD HAVE A DECREASE OF COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. VSBYS COULD
REDUCED TO MVFR WITH PRECIP. WINDS MAINLY 7KTS OR LESS THRU
PERIOD AND GENERALLY SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ONE SIDE NOTE: THERE ARE SPOTTY SIGNALS FOR WIND SHEAR AT RADFORD
NEAR KBCB, BUT NOTHING DEFINITIVE AT THIS TERMINAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS SUNDAY AS THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. KBCB, KLWB, AND KBLF ARE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE SNOW AND SO MVFR CONDITIONS. BRUTALLY COLD WEATHER
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND
VFR FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THERE IS A SOUTHERN LOW THAT
WILL BE TRAVELING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEK BUT IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO EFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020.
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...CG/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AB/CG
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