656
FXUS61 KRNK 181146
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
646 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE EASTERN UNITED STATED WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
IN THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN, WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
AND SNOW, AS WELL AS LEAD IN ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY WIND.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
- NO CHANGE TO THE EXTREME COLD WATCH
PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA, WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS WERE CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S, SOME COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BEFORE 12Z/7AM SO POCKETS OR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OVERALL THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS WILL BRING UP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS SEEN ON THE
ADVECTED LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 850-1000MB LAYER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN FOR MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. 500MB HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEADILY LOWER THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE THIS MORNING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THEN THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 10MB/6HRS, PLENTY LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
GUSTY WIND. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER.
THE LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAP GUIDANCE WAS THE SLOWEST TO SATURATE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR IN THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.
ONLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY DOES THE AIR MASS
DRY OUT ENOUGH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ABOVE 850MB FOR CLEARING IN
THE PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUS COLD
SUNDAY NIGHT THE LIFT BECOMES ALMOST ENTIRELY UPSLOPE DRIVEN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING 850MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE -15 TO -22 RANGE BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY. GUSTY
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA IN SEVERAL
YEARS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH PIEDMONT AREAS ONLY
HAVING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. DUE TO THE EXTREME COLD AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR WILL BE PREVALENT, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN GREENBRIER COUNTY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY TAPER OFF.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
ALL OF THE RNK CWA WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACHING BELOW ZERO TO AS
LOW AS -10 IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. WINDS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT WIND GUSTS OF 10-20 MPH WILL CAUSE WIND
CHILLS TO PLUMMET WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS RELAX LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WILL SEE THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20
TO -25. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME, BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE TEENS/20S, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES RISE TO CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE
WEEK.
2) THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND MOVE
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEFORE HEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN, BUT IF
THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF NC/VA. THIS WILL BE A RARE
STORM THAT WILL GIVE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND WEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO BEING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SNOW, AS THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOWERS RETURN ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY FOR WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S
MIDWEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 30S/40S LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ELSEWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EST SATURDAY...
CEILINGS LOWER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONLY KLWB WAS DOWN TO MVFR AT THE START OF
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN SPREAD EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS HIGHEST AT LWB, WHILE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR BLF AND BCB. EVEN LYH COULD BRIEFLY SEE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET, BUT ROA APPEARS WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY
LIGHT RAIN.
HAVE ADDED LLWS TO THE KROA/KLYH/KLWB AND KBCB TAFS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING LLJ FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALL SITES SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
DUE TO A LIGHT SOUTH WIND PUSHING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING, SO WHATEVER FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCUR WILL
MELT BEFORE MIDDAY.
THE RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE FIRST AT LYH AND DAN BY THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FOG MAY PERSIST FOR BCB, BLF, AND
LWB THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE WIND WILL SWING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY
EVENING, WHILE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MONDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
SO FAR THIS WINTER ARRIVES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY IMPACTS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
MAY STAY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ009-015.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ001-018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ042-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS/JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AMS/PW
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