555
FXUS61 KRNK 181907
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
207 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
2) PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AND RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 3) UPSLOPE SNOW AND VERY
COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MID-LEVEL DRYING HAS ALLOWED
FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT, OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EJECTS EAST TOMORROW
MORNING. TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY AND WILL SEE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS,
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AMONG GUIDANCE
(HI-RES AND GLOBALS) WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW, WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND I64 CORRIDOR
IN VIRGINIA MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I81 CORRIDOR.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS CORRIDOR, BUT
THIS REGION HAS A MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
AMOUNTS AND TRANSITION TIMING. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT...LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE SNOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA,
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. VERY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS
NORTHEAST, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30MPH
RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AREAWIDE
AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL BE INTRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7AM
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT HEADLINES WILL BE MADE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUS COLD
SUNDAY NIGHT THE LIFT BECOMES ALMOST ENTIRELY UPSLOPE DRIVEN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING 850MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE -15 TO -22 RANGE BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY. GUSTY
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA IN SEVERAL
YEARS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH PIEDMONT AREAS ONLY
HAVING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. DUE TO THE EXTREME COLD AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR WILL BE PREVALENT, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN GREENBRIER COUNTY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY TAPER OFF.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
ALL OF THE RNK CWA WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACHING BELOW ZERO TO AS
LOW AS -10 IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. WINDS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT WIND GUSTS OF 10-20 MPH WILL CAUSE WIND
CHILLS TO PLUMMET WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS RELAX LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WILL SEE THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20
TO -25. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME, BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE TEENS/20S, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES RISE TO CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE
WEEK.
2) THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND MOVE
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEFORE HEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN, BUT IF
THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF NC/VA. THIS WILL BE A RARE
STORM THAT WILL GIVE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND WEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO BEING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SNOW, AS THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOWERS RETURN ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY FOR WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S
MIDWEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 30S/40S LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ELSEWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR AND VFR MIX ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE, THEREFORE VFR/MVFR
SEEMS LIKELY INTO TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR LIKELY
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, ALONG WITH LOWERING
CIGS. RAIN WILL TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN
THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS FROM A COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE WIND WILL SWING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING, WHILE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY ADVERSE
AVIATION IMPACTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ009-015.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ001-018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ042-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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