288
FXUS61 KRNK 182200
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
500 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 500 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
2) PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AND RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
3) UPSLOPE SNOW AND VERY COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WATAUGA COUNTY WAS UPGRADED
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS BEECH MOUNTAIN MAY REACH 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TOMORROW TO 7 AM
MONDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MID-LEVEL DRYING HAS ALLOWED
FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT, OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EJECTS EAST TOMORROW
MORNING. TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY AND WILL SEE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS,
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AMONG GUIDANCE
(HI-RES AND GLOBALS) WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW, WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND I64 CORRIDOR
IN VIRGINIA MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I81 CORRIDOR.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS CORRIDOR, BUT
THIS REGION HAS A MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
AMOUNTS AND TRANSITION TIMING. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT...LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE SNOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA,
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. VERY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS
NORTHEAST, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AREAWIDE
AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD EXPECTED, WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRUTALLY/DANGEROUSLY COLD.
2) MINOR SNOW EVENT POSSIBLE MAINLY PIEDMONT ON TUE-WED.
THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A
DEPARTING/INTENSIFYING NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND
SNOW STORM. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY TOWARD -22C
BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST A TAD COLDER
MIDWEEK THAN NOTED YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS,
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES (-30 TO -32C) EARLY MONDAY
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO WV FOR TUE-WED BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION LATER ON INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 20 DEGREES ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 20 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EVEN IN THE
PIEDMONT DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -10F WEST TO +10F EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIND CHILL
READINGS MON-WED MORNING WILL AVERAGE -10F WEST TO +5 EAST,
WITH WEDNESDAY WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -10 RANGE WEST AND -5
TO +5 EAST.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, STILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SKIRTING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WITH THE VERY DRY AIR PRESENT
OVER OUR AREA/STRONG NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM AT BAY. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWEST SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC/VA PIEDMONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN
THIS TIME FRAME.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) VERY SLOW MODERATION OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE BY THE WEEKEND,
2) ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST
FRI-SAT.
THE PATTERN WILL VERY SLOWLY QUIET DOWN AND RELAX A BIT AS WE GO
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
COLDER IN THESE PERIODS THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY, KEEPING
WESTERN AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY POTENTIALLY.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT THIS ONE APPEARS TO TRACK
EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THEREFORE, HAVE
KEPT POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR AND VFR MIX ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE, THEREFORE VFR/MVFR
SEEMS LIKELY INTO TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR LIKELY
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, ALONG WITH LOWERING
CIGS. RAIN WILL TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN
THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS FROM A COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE WIND WILL SWING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING, WHILE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY ADVERSE
AVIATION IMPACTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ009-015.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ001.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ042-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/PW
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG
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