469
FXUS61 KRNK 190229
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
929 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY AND ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 655 PM EST SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED THIS EVENING WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE REPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SW VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MOISTURE INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY.
2) WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT,
WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PATCHY FOG FROM CLOUDS LOWERING TO THE GROUND APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CANADA
SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. A
SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AS MOISTURE INCREASES BY DAYBREAK.
THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR IN VIRGINIA SHOULD WITNESS MOSTLY SNOW AS THE
TRANSITION OCCURS IN THE MORNING, SO THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MEANWHILE, THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY, AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BETWEEN THE
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THIS CORRIDOR, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNTS. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN
WITH PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EVENT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ARCTIC AIR WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
BY SUNSET. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING WIND AND COLD WILL
SEND WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO DANGEROUS TERRITORY FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD EXPECTED, WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRUTALLY/DANGEROUSLY COLD.
2) MINOR SNOW EVENT POSSIBLE MAINLY PIEDMONT ON TUE-WED.
THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A
DEPARTING/INTENSIFYING NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND
SNOW STORM. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY TOWARD -22C
BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST A TAD COLDER
MIDWEEK THAN NOTED YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS,
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES (-30 TO -32C) EARLY MONDAY
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO WV FOR TUE-WED BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION LATER ON INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 20 DEGREES ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 20 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EVEN IN THE
PIEDMONT DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -10F WEST TO +10F EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIND CHILL
READINGS MON-WED MORNING WILL AVERAGE -10F WEST TO +5 EAST,
WITH WEDNESDAY WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -10 RANGE WEST AND -5
TO +5 EAST.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, STILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SKIRTING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WITH THE VERY DRY AIR PRESENT
OVER OUR AREA/STRONG NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM AT BAY. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWEST SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC/VA PIEDMONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN
THIS TIME FRAME.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) VERY SLOW MODERATION OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE BY THE WEEKEND,
2) ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST
FRI-SAT.
THE PATTERN WILL VERY SLOWLY QUIET DOWN AND RELAX A BIT AS WE GO
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
COLDER IN THESE PERIODS THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY, KEEPING
WESTERN AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY POTENTIALLY.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT THIS ONE APPEARS TO TRACK
EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THEREFORE, HAVE
KEPT POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 655 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS MAY HOLD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS, BUT THE MOUNTAINS ALREADY ARE SEEING CEILINGS DROPPING TO
MVFR AND EVEN DOWN TOWARDS LIFR AT BLF. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THAT WILL SWING THE WIND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOG IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW CEILINGS, AND
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FALL TO IFR OR LIFR FOR
ALL TERMINALS, BUT COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW FOR BLF AND LWB. EVENTUALLY, THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT TO SNOW AT BCB AND ROA BY MIDDAY WITH
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SLEET MIXING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW. THE WIND SHOULD TURN AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE PIEDMONT, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER DUE TO AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION ANY IMPACTS AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STAYS TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTH. DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ009-015.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ001.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ042-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/PW
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB/PW
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PW
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