244
FXUS61 KRNK 192316
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY AND
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO JUST
UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT.
2) VERY COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL RAIN EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALSO COME WITH GUSTY WINDS,
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. IN SOME INSTANCES, SOME RIDGETOPS MAY
EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25F. VERY COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS...LOW TO MID 20S IN THE EAST.
UPSLOPE SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE
I-81 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LOOK AT THE 19 JAN 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS ANIMATION DEPICTS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ITS PARENT LOW CENTER
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY. THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM THE PARENT LOW SOUTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA. FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS EVEN MORE AND
SHIFTS A BIT EASTWARD. THE AXIS OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PARENT LOW SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
HEADING SOUTH WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN PLAINS PROVINCES. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION OF THE PARENT LOW,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY START TO FILL SLIGHTLY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
BECOMES THE LESSER OF TWO TROUGH AXES SPIRALING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW AS THIS FEATURES TAKES TRENDS TO MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES ACROSS MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FEATURES THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS PROVINCES ON
TUESDAY, DEEPENS AND TAKES ON MORE LONGWAVE FEATURES AS IT AMPLIFIES
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS. OUR REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN THESE THE TWO TROUGH FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF
CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL
OVER OUR REGION. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE
HEADS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REACHES OUR AREA THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD
FRONT MAKES HEADWAY EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
OUTPUT FROM THE 19 JAN 00Z ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AVERAGING -20C TO -14C, NW-SE,
OVER THE REGION. SIMILAR NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. VALUES
WITHIN THIS RANGE CORRESPOND TO THE 1 TO 10 PERCENTILE OF THE 30-
YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. TUESDAY NIGHT, VALUES DROP TO A RANGE OF -22C
TO -15C, NW-SE. THIS RANGE IS EVEN LOWER ON THE RANGE OF THE 30-YEAR
CLIMATOLOGY, REACHING THE 1 TO 2.5 PERCENTILE. ON WEDNESDAY, VALUES
START TO MODERATE, REACHING A RANGE OF -10C TO -7C, N-S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. VALUES CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
REACHING -8C TO -4C, NW-SE, BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH MONDAY NIGHT TO 0.10 TO
0.25 INCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VALUES AT OR BELOW 0.10 INCH
CORRESPOND TO THE 2.5 TO 10 PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES TREND DRIER TUESDAY NIGHT, DROPPING TO OR UNDER
0.05 INCH, OR VALUES WITHIN THE 0.5 TO 2.5 PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, VALUES OF 0.10 TO
0.15 INCH ARE EXPECTED, AGAIN WITH VALUES AROUND 0.10 INCH WITH THE
2.5 TO 10 PERCENTILE.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER PERIOD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ALMOST NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WHAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT EXIST WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA THANKS TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS HIGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
3. QUESTIONABLE CHANCES OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IMPACTING WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
A LOOK AT THE 19 JAN 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS ANIMATION DEPICTS THE CLOSED LOW EAST OF HUDSON BAY LOSING
SOME OF ITS COMPACTNESS, AND TRENDING A BIT BROADER IN AREA ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, STILL ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
BE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER OUR REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS SAME TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION.
ALSO ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION OF THE US. FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH THAT
WAS OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS ITS
AXIS CROSSES AN AREA FROM MT TO CA. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR OUR
REGION OF THE COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SHIFTS EAST
TO OVER AN AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. A LINGERING LEE SIDE RIDGE MAY
CONTINUE PORTIONS OF VA/NC. A LOW PRESSURE WEAKNESS/TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN FL.
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO
DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LA, AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY. SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST AND
IS OVER THE AREA OF SC/GA, PLACING OUR AREA WITH WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC,
WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW. BY SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. A PRESSURE WEAKNESS WILL EXIST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST INTO THE TX/AZ REGION.
OUTPUT FROM THE 19 JAN 00Z ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -8C TO -4C, NW-SE, ACROSS THE
AREA. VALUES TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY NIGHT, REACHING -12C TO -6C, NW-
SE, BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM -12C TO -8C, NW-SE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, VALUES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO -7C TO -3C, NW-SE. ON SATURDAY, VALUES
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND, REACHING -2C TO +1C, NW-SE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE UPWARD TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, REACHING -2C
TO +2C, N-S, BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE AROUND 0.15 INCH. VALUES CREEP A LITTLE HIGHER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, REACH AROUND 0.25 INCH. SIMILAR VALUES CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VALUES INCH A BIT HIGHER TO BETWEEN 0.35
AND 0.50 INCH.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER
WEATHER, ESPECIALLY ONCE WE REACH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT THIS TIME LOOK LIMITED.
WE MAY NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. THE WEAKNESS SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
COMPRISED OF A VARIETY OF LOW TRACK PATHS AND TIMINGS. A FEW OF
THESE HAVE A SOLUTION FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALSO
HIGHLY VARIABLE, HINTING PROBABILITIES ON THE P-TYPE IF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO PRIMARILY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOME GUIDANCE OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPILL OVER
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND WARMER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HEAD UPWARD AND A
FRONT/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
ADVECT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOW.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IMPACTING WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IS MODERATE.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 600 PM EST SUNDAY...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR HIGHER ELEVATION TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES LOOK TO END FOR BCB BY 6 UTC, BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT BLF AND LWB THROUGH 12 UTC MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL ALSO LINGER AT THESE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12
UTC MONDAY, WITH BCB BEING THE FIRST SITE TO IMPROVE TO VFR,
FOLLOWED BY BLF AND LWB DURING THE 15-18 UTC TIMEFRAME. ROA,
LYH, AND DAN ALL LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 20 UTC MONDAY. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON MONDAY, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY IMPACTS
AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STAYS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED.
CLIMATE
AS OF 145 PM EST SUNDAY...
BLUEFIELD, BLACKSBURG, ROANOKE MAY HAVE THEIR MINIMUM HIGHS
CHALLENGED ON MONDAY, WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 7, 14 AND 20,
RESPECTIVELY. HERE ARE THE RECORDS BELOW:
MONDAY 01/20/2025
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 66 1954 -20 1985 11 1940 50 1927
KDAN 70 1951 -1 1994 14 1994 50 1954
KLYH 68 1926 -7 1985 19 1994 50 1954
KROA 69 1951 -10 1985 20 1994 44 2017
KRNK 67 1951 -5 1994 16 1994 39 2017
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
015.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>012-015.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>017-019-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ013-
014-016>020-022>024-032>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ010-011-
019-020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR NCZ003-
019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042-043.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042-
043.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ044-
507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG/EB
CLIMATE...BMG
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