761
FXUS61 KRNK 200816
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
316 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS MORNING. WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE, DANGEROUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
A COUPLE MORE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES END THIS MORNING FOR
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW.
2) COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH NOON. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR W. GREENBRIER CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES TODAY,
WITH ITS CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS RIDGING MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. AS IT DOES SO, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO SWING TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING OVERCAST SKIES BY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A VERY
STRONG 1050MB+ HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA
PROVINCE THIS MORNING, AND WAS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE LOWER 48.
THIS HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME BUT MODERATING ONLY
SLIGHTLY. A PIECE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME
WILL PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY, AND WILL HELP TO CUTOFF
ANY REMAINING UPSLOPE SHOWERS.
STRATUS WAS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRONG NW FLOW, WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. THIS WAS
STILL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WERE
DROPPING, WE WERE STILL SEEING FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS NC. IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. AS THE SUN RISES
HOWEVER, EXPECT SKIES TO IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN WV BY MIDDAY. THE JET AT 200MB WAS AROUND 165KTS,
AND SHOULD KEEP SOME PASSING CIRRUS IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES.
UNFORTUNATELY THE SUN WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH TODAY AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES. VERY STRONG CAA AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FLOW/TRAJECTORY WILL SERVE TO FUNNEL BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
STRAIGHT TO US. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AT
LEAST. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA MAY OCCUR AROUND
DAYBREAK, WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO COMBAT THE CAA.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 15 FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH ROANOKE AND THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC ONLY
REACHING THE 20S. THIS IS ABOUT 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR HIGHS ON THIS DATE! WHETHER OR NOT SOME SITES BREAK OR TIE
THEIR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS TODAY WILL DEPEND
PARTIALLY ON CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO THE POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND AROUND 10 TO 13 FOR THE
PIEDMONT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETTER THAN THIS MORNING AS SPEEDS
WILL HAVE DROPPED OFF, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR W. GREENBRIER
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WE FALL SHORT OF
EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT AT
OUR HIGHER PEAKS. IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY DANGEROUS FOR HUMANS,
PETS, AND LIVESTOCK, HOWEVER. THANKFULLY THIS IS A HOLIDAY AND
MANY PEOPLE CAN STAY INSIDE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, ASIDE
FROM UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AT MOST 0.5" IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A COASTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US COULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
THIS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK UNLIKELY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE STORM FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA WITH DRIER AIR LIKELY TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH NO FURTHER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DURING THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S ON TUESDAY BEFORE RISING
INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN BITTERLY COLD, WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED, BUT ARE FORECASTED TO
BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH GUSTS OF 10-15 MPH, WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL BE COLD, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN 10
BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE
WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO. DUE TO THIS, AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THURSDAY
MORNING WILL SEE LOWS SLIGHTLY RISE TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
2) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WHEN THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE RNK CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE,
WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS,
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
MORE WESTERLY, ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CAUSES RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S/30S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOW 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S ELSEWHERE FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50S IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN CHILLY IN THE
TEENS LATE WEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 20S/30S SUNDAY MORNING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. BLF, LWB, AND BCB WERE SEEING
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, WITH VFR CEILINGS AT ROA,
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT LYH AND DAN. BCB WILL BE THE FIRST
SITE TO IMPROVE TO VFR, FOLLOWED BY BLF AND LWB. CLOUDS MAY
NEVER TOTALLY GO AWAY AT BLF AND LWB, AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS FOR BLF AND
LWB, AND VFR FOR THE REMAINDER, AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
TUESDAY EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SYSTEM BRINGING
LOW CHANCES OF SNOW TO BLF/LWB, AND A SEPARATE SYSTEM BRINGING
LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW TO LOCATIONS SSE OF DAN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW FOR BLF AND LWB AGAIN
FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
BLUEFIELD, BLACKSBURG, ROANOKE MAY HAVE THEIR MINIMUM HIGHS
CHALLENGED ON MONDAY, WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 7, 14 AND 20,
RESPECTIVELY. HERE ARE THE RECORDS BELOW:
MONDAY 01/20/2025
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 66 1954 -20 1985 11 1940 50 1927
KDAN 70 1951 -1 1994 14 1994 50 1954
KLYH 68 1926 -7 1985 19 1994 50 1954
KROA 69 1951 -10 1985 20 1994 44 2017
KRNK 67 1951 -5 1994 16 1994 39 2017
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009-015.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>012-
015.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>017-019-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ013-014-
016>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ003-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
043.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042-043.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ508.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB/SH
CLIMATE...SH
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