517
FXUS61 KRNK 201826
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
126 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE, DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A A COUPLE MORE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SUNNY SKIES, BUT STILL BREEZY. GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS STILL EXCEEDING 20 MPH, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL RELAX
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT WITH MANY LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ANY
ELEVATED VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SNOW COVER, THAT CAN
DECOUPLE TONIGHT COULD SEE BELOW 0 LOWS.
VERY DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BUILDS EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
TRAVERSE THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE. WILL ONLY SEE OVERCAST
SKIES FROM THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL REMAIN BELOW 32F AREAWIDE. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LESS WIND, SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
LOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, ASIDE
FROM UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AT MOST 0.5" IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A COASTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US COULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
THIS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK UNLIKELY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE STORM FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA WITH DRIER AIR LIKELY TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH NO FURTHER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DURING THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S ON TUESDAY BEFORE RISING
INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN BITTERLY COLD, WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED, BUT ARE FORECASTED TO
BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH GUSTS OF 10-15 MPH, WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL BE COLD, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN 10
BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE
WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO. DUE TO THIS, AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THURSDAY
MORNING WILL SEE LOWS SLIGHTLY RISE TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
2) CHANCE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND SUPPORT SOME WAA AND A WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD, CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER AFTER THE EXTREME COLD EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK.
(850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AROUND THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL ). CURRENT ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND IN THE 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. LOWS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S REGION WIDE,
EXCEPT FOR ELEVATED AREAS WHICH COULD BE COLDER.
A COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH BY THIS WEEKEND TO BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST WESTERN AND ELEVATED
AREAS. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE ON THE QUIETER SIDE.
THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON A STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPECIFICS ON PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS AS A RESULT ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR (PUN INTENDED). CLOUD
COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THESE SYSTEMS THOUGH CURRENTLY PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST MONDAY...
AREAWIDE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALID 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW GUSTS STILL
TOPPING 20KTS AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT
STILL EXPECTING VFR WITH CLOUD LAYER GENERALLY ABOVE 7KFT. WINDS
STILL REMAIN LIGHT ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK-
MOVING DISTURBANCE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>017-019-020.
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG
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