179
FXUS61 KRNK 211403
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
903 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE, DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE MAY
SEE LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION SUNDAY.
UPDATED NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 900 AM EST TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THERE WERE
ONLY SMALL EDITS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY HIGHER IN THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THAN IN SOUTHEAST WV. GRANTED, THIS GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS ONLY AROUND 20-30% OVERALL. LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY IS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO
BATTER THE AREA.
2) LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR SE WV AND THE FAR SE PIEDMONT THIS
TODAY AND TONIGHT, FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH COVERED THE UNITED STATES
EXCEPT FOR CA AND NV. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY
IS EXPECTED.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO AN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO ABOUT 15 AT 3 AM. EXPECT TO BE A LITTLE COLDER BY
DAYBREAK. THANKFULLY, WINDS ARE LIGHT, SO WIND CHILLS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE -5F TO +5F RANGE, SO MOST OF THE COLD IS DUE TO
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER, EVEN COLDER PART OF THE
1048MB HIGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
MIDWEST, AND THIS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COLD AND VERY COLD AIR (OSTENSIBLY A
COLD FRONT, BUT IT DOES NOT DO IT JUSTICE) WILL APPROACH THE
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT, AS A SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS EAST. TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL OCCUR
EVENTUALLY, AND WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMIC FORCING (190 KT JET
ALOFT), WE SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP, BOTH FOR SE WV AND
OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. IN BETWEEN, OVERCAST SKIES AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES AT TIMES, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, MOSTLY A COATING. ONLY SPOT THAT
MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WV.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 10F TO 20F FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
ROANOKE AND THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC BETWEEN 20F AND 27F
DEGREES. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WILL
BE THIS MORNING, AS THAT COLDER PART OF THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WINDS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH BY MORNING.
THUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE WORSE TONIGHT, BELOW ZERO TO NEAR -20F FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PIEDMONT. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W. GREENBRIER COUNTY
THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. WATAUGA, ASHE, AND GRAYSON COUNTIES
CURRENTLY HAVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH 11 AM TODAY,
BUT ALSO HAVE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
WEDNESDAY.
ALL OTHER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THIS MORNING'S COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH 11 AM. THE
ENTIRE REMAINDER WILL BE UNDER COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY, IN COORDINATION WITH AREA
OFFICES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) EXTREME COLD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
2) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH QUIET WEATHER
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
3) THE BITTER COLD FINALLY ENDS ON FRIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RNK CWA
WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY AIR SUPPRESSING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE THURSDAY, A WEAK
UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, WHICH
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH A DUSTING AT MOST CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST STORY, WITH WEDNESDAY
STARTING OUT BITTERLY COLD. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA-
WIDE, WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BUT NOT STRONG, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 10MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
NEAR ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE CWA, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SEEING WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY IN WV COULD SEE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUES COLD WEATHER HEADLINES IN COORDINATION WITH AREA OFFICES.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE 20S, BUT A
GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 40S, THOUGH
THIS IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
2) THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A DEEPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS
THE FRONT DIES OUT OVER OUR AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE WESTERN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS, BUT ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BY LATE
SUNDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT WHAT THEY DO AGREE ON IS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN, AS MODELS HINT AN INITIAL MIXING OF RAIN/SNOW COULD
OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING, MODELS VASTLY DIFFER WITH THE
GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE
AS MODELS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S. A FEW EASTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS
COULD BREAK 50 DEGREES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE TEENS BUT RISE INTO THE 20S AND EVEN A FEW LOW
30S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TODAY, MAINLY FOR BLF AND LWB, BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY AT DAN. FOR ROA, BCB, AND LYH, FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OVERCAST VFR SKIES. A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING GUSTY
NW WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK-
MOVING DISTURBANCE. SATURDAY OVERALL LOOKS VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ015-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009>014-016>019-022>024-032>035.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ002-003-019-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ004>006.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...CG/SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page