346
FXUS61 KRNK 212109 CCA
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES OF FLURRIES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS, BEFORE A WARMING TREND ARRIVES TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
2) ANOTHER FRIGID DAY WEDNESDAY
THERE ARE, OVERALL, TWO IDEAL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE AREA WILL BE IN THE MOST NORTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THANKS TO UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FROM A WEAK
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW. THE OTHER LOCATION IS IN
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA. THE OUTER SNOW BANDS OF
THE WINTER STORM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD REACH THE MORE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THAT BEING SAID, OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS WINTER STORM AND THESE OUTER
BANDS MAY STILL COMPLETELY MISS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION, THE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY DRY (DEW POINTS BETWEEN 0 AND -10F), SO MANY
FLAKES WON'T MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. AS A RESULT, LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
NEVERTHELESS, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET, BUT THAT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FACT
THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN OUR REGION. MOST OF THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AT
SELECTED LOCATIONS THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS FAR AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ALONG AND WEST
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. WESTERN GREENBRIER, MAY HAVE WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND -20. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S EAST
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE TEENS, BROADLY SPEAKING, ALONG
AND WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINING COLD.
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH PASSAGE
OF REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FRIDAY. AS A WHOLE, THE COLD AIR
MODERATES FROM CURRENT NUMBERS, 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN
M4 TO M8 DEG C THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING INTO THE M8 TO M12 DEG C
RANGE FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY WARMER THAN WHAT IS
OCCURRING NOW. BOTTOM LINE, WE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AVERAGING ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM.
MOISTURE PROFILES THURSDAY LOOK SHALLOW, BUT DEEPEN SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY PER PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT WILL BE
CLOUD COVER, BUT DO THINK FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR AT LEAST THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A WARMING TREND MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS BACK NORTH AND ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
DRYING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBLF WHICH
MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY
CLEAR OUT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW IN OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD NOT IMPACT VSBYS, BUT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TOWARD RDU AVIATION CONDITIONS BECOME WORSE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXCEPTION BEING SOME SUB-VFR MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ015-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009>014-016>019-022>024-032>035.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ002-003-019-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ004>006.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...CG
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