072
FXUS61 KRNK 152350
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM INCREASING THE THREAT OF
FLOODING. BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CANCELLED
- FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WV AND
SOUTHWEST VA. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.
- AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT
- WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED AREA OF RAIN HAD STAY FAIRLY PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH HAS PRODUCED MUCH MORE RAIN THAN EARLIER
FORECAST, WITH 2-3 INCHES COMMON OVER SOUTHEAST WV INTO FAR SW
VA EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS HAS LED TO EXTENSIVE FLOODING
ALONG AREA CREEKS/STREAM AND RIVERS, WITH HARDEST HIT AREAS IN
SOUTHERN WV INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS FINALLY SHOW THIS AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTH
AND HIGH RES SOLUTIONS HAVE IT PUSHING OUT OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN STARTS TO TRACK TOWARD
THE NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA, THOUGH THIS AREA HAS NOT BEEN
AS HARD HIT.
WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCHES GOING.
FOG WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN, AND THOSE TRAVELING WILL NEED TO
BE ALERT AS DEBRIS AND FLOODING ROADS WILL BE A HAZARD ON
ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHEAST WV TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WERE RISING SLOWLY, BUT WERE STILL
FROM NEAR 32 DEGREES AS OF 2PM. DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT HAD RETURNED TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCE
NORTH OF I-64 WEST OF LEXINGTON DURING THE EVENING. SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL STOP OR BECOME MUCH LIGHTER.
HOWEVER, WITH A LIGHT WIND AT THE SURFACE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG, WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE, IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES ON ROADS IN THE AREA,
ANY FOG WILL MAKE IT ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT TO SEE THESE HAZARDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT, THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY, LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
REACHES THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. TONIGHT THROUGH
THE TIME THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE +6 TO +10 RANGE. BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO -4 TO -8. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
3KM NAM SHOWED A SURGE IN WIND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN 8AM AND 4PM. MODELS DEPICT A 60
KNOT CROSS BARRIER LOW-LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
2. LOW WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
3. DRY AND COLDER TUESDAY.
4. ONSET OF POTENTIAL WINTER STORM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LOOK AT THE 15 FEB 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOW A DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO
QUEBEC EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TWO ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTEND FROM
THIS SYSTEM. ONE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MERGE
INTO ONE LOW CENTER, AND SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION. A TRAILING TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA HEADS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGINS TO
DEEPEN. IN RESPONSE, FLOW OVER OUR REGION STARTS TO BACK AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. CONCURRENTLY,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, SOUTH
TO TEXAS. BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF THE CENTRAL US
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS TO OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OVER OUR REGION. CONCURRENTLY, AN INVERTED
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
A LOOK AT THE 15 FEB 00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
-14C TO -10C, NW-SE. THESE VALUES CORRESPOND TO THE 2.5 TO 10
PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. ON MONDAY, THESE VALUES
MODERATE A BIT, REACHING A RANGE OF -9C TO -4C, N-S, BY THE EARLY
EVENING. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY RANGING FROM -8C TO -2C, N-S. ON TUESDAY, VALUES
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT, REACHING -7C TO -2C, N-S.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS A SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE AND THE
BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WITH VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA,
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY.
FORECAST 850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO 50KTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY OR
NEAR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. COMBINE THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS WITH
BOTH SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING DAMAGED TREES/LIMBS FROM THE
RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT, AND THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR TREES
AND POWER LINES TO BE BROUGHT DOWN.
AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA, THE COMBINATION OF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE LOW WIND
CHILLS. THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PIEDMONT REGION.
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND SOME OF
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
US. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA MAY START EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE
ONSET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
2. DRIER AND TRENDING SLIGHTLY MILDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A LOOK AT THE 15 FEB 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE LOW OPENS INTO A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH PROGRESSES
TO THE AREA OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST, AND A NEW TROUGH STARTS DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES, SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ON
SATURDAY, THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES EASTWARD AND EVOLVES TO
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN US INVERTED TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD. AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD, ITS INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
THE INVERTED TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL US EXPENDS EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTRAL US HIGH CONTINUES ITS
EXPANSION EASTWARD. SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
A LOOK AT THE 15 FEB 00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THE EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM -6C TO -2C, NW-SE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, VALUES WILL TREND LOWER, REACHING A RANGE OF -13C TO -10C,
NW-SE BY THURSDAY EVENING. THESE VALUES WILL CORRESPOND TO THE 2.5
TO 10 PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA, THE NUMBERS REPRESENT THE 1 TO 2.5
PERCENTILE. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, ONLY SMALL MODERATION IS EXPECTED
WITH DAYBREAK FRIDAY VALUES RANGING FROM -12C TO -8C, NW-SE. ON
FRIDAY, VALUES START TO MODERATE, REACHING -8C TO -6C, NW-SE BY THE
EARLY EVENING. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, VALUES
INCREASE TO -6C NORTH TO -4C SOUTH. BY SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT A
RANGE OF -5C TO -3C, N-S.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
PROGRESSING INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. FOR MOST OF OUR REGION, SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE OFFERING A SNOW FORECAST. ENOUGH OF A
WARM NOSE MAY INFILTRATE THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION TO
OFFER A P-TYPE CHALLENGE. AN ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE, IS HOW MUCH
INFLUENCE WILL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HAVE ON THE POTENTIALLY
MULTI-DAY WINTRY EVENT. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OFFER TOO BROAD
OF A SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS FOR THERE TO BE GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THIS
QUESTION JUST YET. HOWEVER, THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE EQUALLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE NO INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. THE
QUESTION IS MORE WILL THE TWO WORK IN TANDEM WITH EACH OTHER, A
UNIQUE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO, OR SOME HYBRID SOLUTION WHERE
THERE IS SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. OUR MOST RECENT FORECAST
IS LEANING TOWARD THE THIRD OPTION WITH AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO.
TAKING A LOOK AT SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES FROM DESI FOR THE 48 HOURS
CONCLUDING 7PM THURSDAY, CURRENTLY THERE IS A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OR GREATER OF FIVE INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL OF OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES, MOST OF OUR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES EXCEPT THOSE NEAREST THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER, AND
SOUTHWEST OF WYTHEVILLE ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A REIDSVILLE TO SOUTH BOSTON LINE HAVE A 30 TO 40
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING 0.1 INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING
RAIN DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOR THE MOST PART,
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY MILDER.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...
POOR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS/VSBYS
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE
WIND TURN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TAKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WITH IT.
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS TO
ALL SITES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EXCEED 25KTS, BUT THE
HEAD PAST 30-35KTS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. BY
THIS TIME, ASIDE FROM LWB/BLF ALL SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR,
WHILE LOW CIGS REMAIN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AT BLF/LWB WITH
POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SUB-VFR MONDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BRING WINTER PRECIP WED-THU WITH
THE MID-ATLANTIC VERY WELL BEING IMPACTED CONSIDERABLY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
-FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE
MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST ON THE CLINCH AT TAZEWELL WITH MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE GREENBRIER RIVER AT ALDERSON.
POSSIBLY MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE ROANOKE.
RAINFALL WILL START TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT THE 2-3 INCHES
OF RAIN ALONG WITH SATURATED GROUND HAS LED TO MANY CREEKS AND
RIVERS RISING HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. BIGGEST IMPACTS ARE
ACROSS THE CLINCH/BLUESTONE/HOLSTON AND ROANOKE BASINS, WITH THE
JAMES ALSO BECOMING IMPACTED.
MORE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WITH HIGHER RATES COULD EXACERBATE
THE FLOODING THREAT, BUT OVERNIGHT RAINFALL LOOKS LIMITED
THANKFULLY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ014>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>013-018>020.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS/WP
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