289
FXUS61 KRNK 161606
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1106 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH OHIO VALLEY PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINTER
WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1055 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
- HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR
TODAY INTO MONDAY
FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS JUST EXITING EAST OF
BUCKINGHAM AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. WINDS BEHIND THIS BAND WERE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS, CLOSER TO THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WAS CROSSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WERE INTENSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THE STRONG WIND ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LARGE PRESSURE RISES
JUST ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA AT 10AM. THIS IS ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE DEPICTED ON THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIND BASED ON THESE CURRENT
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
PRESSURE FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS, GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFTS AND
PRESSURES RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE PRESSURE
RISES LOOK TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 50-65KT 850MB NORTHWESTERLY
LLJ THAT WILL AID IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 55MPH AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS, WHICH COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT WET SOILS AND FRAGILE
TREE LIMBS FROM THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY TO THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL,
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCHES TO 1.0
INCHES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH MAY EXACERBATE THE
ALREADY SWELLED STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MANY
RIVERS MAY SEE A DOUBLE CREST OR EVEN ADDITIONAL RISES AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES,
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP
500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS MAY START TO SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THE 4-8PM TIMEFRAME. BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 20S
TO UPPER TEENS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. WITH 3-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS INTO EARLY MONDAY
2. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING.
3. CONTINUED DRY AND COLDER INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
4. ONSET OF POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 40S EAST. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA, MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 15F TO 25F IN
THE WEST AND MID 20S IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM COMING OUT
OF THE GULF. WITH DEW POINTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. AS THE GULF
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE CAROLINAS, PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
LIGHT SNOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY BECOMING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
2. DRIER AND TRENDING SLIGHTLY MILDER NEXT WEEKEND.
A GULF LOW (MILLER A) WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW, EVEN
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW WILL END IN THE EVENING, THEN MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE REGION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 615 AM EST SATURDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH A COLD FRONT ON THE DOORSTOP OF THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS LOOK TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS, LLWS UP TO 45-50
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF LULL IN LLWS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IS POSSIBLE AFTER
00UTC.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE FOR BLF, BCB,
AND LWB THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ROA, LYH, AND DAN
LOOK TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION AS WESTERLY WINDS LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE WINDS TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH WINDS THIS STRONG, THE THREAT OF LLWS LOOKS TO
RETURN BY 00UTC FOR LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SUB-VFR MONDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BRING WINTER PRECIP WED-THU WITH
THE MID-ATLANTIC VERY WELL BEING IMPACTED CONSIDERABLY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 1035 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-RIVER FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHWEST
VA
-FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED
MODERATE FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ON THE CLINCH AT TAZEWELL, VA.
THE RIVER IS FALLING.
MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ON THE HOLSTON RIVER AT SALTVILLE,
VA. THE RIVER IS FALLING.
MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ON THE ROANOKE RIVER AT ROANOKE AND
RANDOLPH. MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT BROOKNEAL. THE CREST
WAS PAST ROANOKE AND ALTAVISTA AND WAS UPSTREAM OF BROOKNEAL.
THE GREENBRIER RIVER AT ALDERSON RECENTLY CRESTED AROUND MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.
MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MODERATE
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN.
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER RAIN RATES
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ADD TO ANY FLOODING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ014>017-022>024-
032>035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009>013-
018>020.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS/EB
NEAR TERM...AMS/EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS/WP
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