684
FXUS61 KRNK 161955
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MUCH COLDER AIR, MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS, AND STRONG GUSTY WIND BUILDS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT
COLD FRONT WAS CLOSE TO CROSSING INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AROUND 2PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE QUICK BEHIND THE FRONT, AS AT
BLUEFIELD THAT DROPPED ALMOST 14 DEGREES IN LESS ROUGHLY 2
HOURS. PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ONCE
THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO AROUND 38 DEGREES. WIND GUSTS HAVE
BEEN 40 TO 55 MPH ALONG THE FRONT.
GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES. LAPS ANALYSIS FROM 1PM SHOWED
11MB/3HRS RISES HEADING INTO THE AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING NEW
REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES. SO NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING
AND THE WIND ADVISORY.
NBM PROBABILISTIC FORECAST HAS A GREATER THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE OTHER LOCATIONS THAT TYPICALLY HAVE SNOW
SHOWERS IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 5
PERCENT. NO CHANGE PLANNED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STAYED CLOSE TO NBM TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S AND THE
GUSTY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -5 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. NO CHANGES TO THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARING OUT AND LARGE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GOOD LAPSE RATES A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON THE CLOUD TEMPERATURE REACH SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
PRIMARILY A SNOW FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION. 2. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RECEIVE FOUR OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM 3. FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER TYPES. 4. WINDS
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM.
A LOOK AT THE 16 FEB 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOW A CLOSED AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY EVENING. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST TO SOUTH OF GREENLAND. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW
TRAILS STRETCHES OUT AND TRIES TO DEVELOP INTO ITS OWN CLOSED WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AN ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA STARTS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH. WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER TROUGH/LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF COMPLETELY TO A LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND EXTENDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
AT THE SURFACE, THE NOSE OF AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND SOUTHEAST US MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND EXTEND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN, EXTEND NORTHWARD IN LENGTH, AND
HEAD EAST TO OVER THE US EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE. WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGING, THERE IS A WEAK INDICATION OF A WAVE MOVING SOUTH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A LOOK AT THE 16 FEB 00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
-8C TO -3C RANGE NW-SE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE TEMPERATURE RANGE STAYS
ABOUT THE SAME, BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE GRADIENT SWITCHES TO NW-
SE. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, VALUES DROP RAPIDLY, REACHING -16C TO -8C,
NW-SE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS RANGE OF VALUES CORRESPONDS TO THE
2.5 TO 10 PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER A DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS AS THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION KEEPS OUR FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND FOR
MONDAY NIGHT TO SEE WIND CHILLS IN MAINLY THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS TO OVER OUR REGION, AND A
DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING
EASTWARD, WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO OUR REGION.
THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, COVERAGE INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS ARE TRENDING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE TROUGH OUTRUNNING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH INTO POTENTIALLY A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONCURRENTLY, THE UPPER
LOW TRAILS BY ABOUT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER LOW
AND ALSO THANKS TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE EXPECTED
TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO HAVE NO SUBSTANTIAL
WARM NOSE, SNOW WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE
AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT A COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT CASE FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THIS REGION, VARIOUS GUIDANCE
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL STILL FOR A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER TYPES AT
LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ONLY A SNOW FORECAST, BUT BY THEN, MUCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE EXITED THAT REGION.
FOR 24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, A LOOK AT THE 13Z DESI RUNTIME UTILIZING THE NBM-CONUS
DATASET OFFERS THE FOLLOWING: 50 PERCENT OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF
RECEIVING FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD, WV TO REIDSVILLE, NC. LOOKING AT THE SIX
INCH OR GREATER PROBABILITIES, THE 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER THRESHOLD
INCLUDES ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM SOUTH BOSTON TO
CHATHAM TO LYNCHBURG TO BUCKINGHAM.
FOR 24-HOUR FREEZING RAIN TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, A LOOK AT THE 13Z DESI RUNTIME UTILIZING THE NBM-
CONUS DATASET OFFERS THE FOLLOWING: 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.1
ICE OR GREATER FOR OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES GENERALLY EAST OF
ROUTE 29, AND A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.1 OR GREATER ICE FOR
OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A DANVILLE TO
KEYSVILLE LINE.
WHILE NOT YET A HIGH CONFIDENCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE UPCOMING
WINTER STORM IS INCREASING, ALONG WITH THE CONFIDENCE IN PRIMARILY A
SNOW FORECAST, RATHER THAN A MIXED P-TYPE FORECAST, FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
2. MUCH COLDER ON THURSDAY BUT TRENDING MILDER INTO AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
3. BITTER WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
4. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND ONWARD.
A LOOK AT THE 16 FEB 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVING EAST AND REACHING NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXTENT SOUTH JUST OFF SHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ON FRIDAY, FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TRENDS
ZONAL. LITTLE HEADWAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US. FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WESTERN US TROUGH MAY HEAD EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, LEAVING ITS TAIL OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. FOR SUNDAY,
BOTH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND THE ONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US MERGE
INTO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CONUS BROADENS AND SHIFTS EAST. ON THURSDAY, THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BROADEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FOR
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.
A LOOK AT THE 16 FEB 00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE
-16C TO -11C RANGE, NW-SE. NUMBERS THIS LOW CORRESPOND TO THE 1 TO
10 PERCENT OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. THURSDAY NIGHT, VALUES
TREND UPWARD, REACHING -9C TO -6C, NW-SE, BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT VALUES OF -6C TO -3C N-S.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON SUNDAY, REACHING -3C TO -1C, N-S BY THE
EARLY EVENING.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND RESIDUAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA, SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ONLY
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850MB FLOW WEAKENS AND
BACKS.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS POSSIBLE
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE NCEP ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
AND THE NAEFS OUTPUT OFFERS HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW, IF NOT WELL
BELOW, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
MEMBERS OFFER SUCH FEATURES AS QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES EITHER SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 240 PM EST SATURDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARING OUT AND LARGE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GOOD LAPSE RATES A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON THE CLOUD TEMPERATURE REACH SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL ANY MVFR VISIBILITY FROM SNOW OUT OF
THE KLWB TAF, BUT WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SUB-VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS AND VFR INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BRING WINTER PRECIP WED-THU AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BEING SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ014>017-022>024-
032>035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009>013-
018>020.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/EB
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