331
FXUS61 KRNK 171610
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1110 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE REGIONS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE GULF, AND UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTLINE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1100 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
2. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE. MOISTURE ON THE
BLACKSBURG AND PITTSBURGH 12Z/7AM SOUNDINGS WAS VERY SHALLOW AND
SLOWLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE WIND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND.
NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY, A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. ACROSS THE SURFACE, A MODERATELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
ON SUNDAY, THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. WHILE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE, UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY THE
MID-MORNING HOURS TODAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS, AND REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO DOWN SLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERALL, WHILE IT WILL REMAIN UNPLEASANTLY WINDY
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, SKIES WILL START
TO CLEAR OUT, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND
FOR WIND CHILLS IN MAINLY THE TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE
A SNOW FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION
2.INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RECEIVE FOUR
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO 40S
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING, BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY,
THEN OFF THE GA/SC COAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT SNOW, BUT THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BEING OVER THE PIEDMONT. WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE
20S, THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SNOW WILL BE DRY. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THURSDAY.
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COVERAGE SHRINKING TO WESTERN SLOPES, ENDING
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RUN 20F TO 25F
COLDER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST MONDAY...
GUSTY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT LWB, BLF, AND OCCASIONALLY BCB
AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THROUGHOUT THE MID-MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THESE THREE
AFOREMENTIONED SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ROA, DAN, AND LYH THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15-20 KNOTS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT THESE THREE SITES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT
BCB, BLF, AND LWB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL, WITH A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND GUST INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS AND VFR INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WED-INTO
EARLY THU AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. THINGS CLEAR OUT TO END THE WEEK, BUT
EXPECT SUB-VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THU,
POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
033>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB/WP
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