829
FXUS61 KRNK 181600
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE REGIONS NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF,
AND UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. DRY AND MUCH
COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) NO CHANGE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW SNOW SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z/5AM AND 14Z/9AM.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN TIMING AND LOCATION. FOR THIS TIME
RANGE MODELS STILL HAD QUITE A SPREAD IN AMOUNTS, SO CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE. SNOW RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10-15:1 RANGE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE AREA, WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY. WHILE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TODAY, THEY WILL BE THE CALMEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 5-10 MPH. AS THE NEXT WINTRY SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY
EXPAND OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE EVENT LOOK TO START
FALLING BETWEEN 1-4AM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VIRGINIA AND SE
WEST VIRGINIA. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION ULTIMATELY LEADING
TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERTAKING MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY SUNRISE EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THIS POINT, ROADS WILL JUST
BE STARTING TO GET COVERED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. WINTER STORM HEADLINES ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA
2. A TWO-PART SYSTEM WILL HAVE SNOW IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, SINGLE DIGITS FOR WIND CHILLS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PART 1) WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES
(AL/MS) WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE
EVENING. IF THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC/SC COAST, HIGHER TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE. IF THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH, MOVING OFF THE GA/FL COAST,
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE TAKING THE MIDDLE WITH AN
EXIT OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AS COLD AIR DIGS DEEP INTO THE CAROLINAS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE GULF LOW WILL RANGE 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AND 3-5 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 29. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DEW POINTS LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S, THEREFORE THE SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
AS THE SURFACE LOW EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH (PART 2) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF
SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND A FRONT PASSAGE, SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY FALL ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THEN SHRINK TO THE WESTERN SLOPE
THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER TO ABOUT AN INCH IN THE BLUEFIELD AREA. THE REST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A DUSTING UNLESS BRIEF STRONG SNOWBANDS
FORM THURSDAY.
PRESSURE RISES AND A 40 KTS LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DIP BELOW ZERO FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. MAINLY DRY AND TRENDING MILDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
2. NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, THEN OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. ONCE THIS RIDGE IS OUT OF THE REGION, SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL
READINGS ON SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06 UTC
WEDNESDAY. A MORE DENSE CLOUD DECK LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO
THE REGION LOOKS TO APPROACH WESTERN TAF SITES JUST AFTER 06
UTC WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WINTER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION.
OVERALL, IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 5-10 MPH FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. A TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
LOOKS TO START JUST PRIOR TO 06 UTC WEDNESDAY AT ALL TERMINALS
AS SUBTLE WEDGING LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO DEVELOP AT BCB, BLF, AND LWB AROUND 09 UTC WEDNESDAY. ROA,
LYH, AND DAN LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AS
SNOW SHOWERS PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CEILING, VISIBILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WED-INTO
EARLY THU AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. THINGS CLEAR OUT TO END THE WEEK, BUT
EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THU, POSSIBLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
DRY, VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ035-043>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ003-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...AMS/EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/WP
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