395
FXUS61 KRNK 181847
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT WILL REACH
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION TO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOW IN
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NO CHANGE TO WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT AND WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT.
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TRACKS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
NO MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -3 TO -8 RANGE AND NBM4.2 SNOW RATIO
FORECAST IS FROM 10-15:1, BOTH ORIENTED FROM COLDER NORTHWEST TO
WARMER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED. THE PROBABILITY OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SUBTLE IN-SITU WEDGING DEVELOP IN WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW BEGINS. IN
GENERAL THE SNOW WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE
SUNRISE AND EXPAND INTO THE VIRGNIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY
LATE MORNING. HRRR/3KM NAM/FV3/ARW HAVE AN HOUR OR TWO DIFFERENCES
IN STARTING TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM AS EARLY AT 3AM/08Z
AT LEWISBURG TO AS LATE AS NOON IN DANVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON. LIKELY
THE ACTUALLY TIMING WILL FALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES PLANNED TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2) UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLY TILTED, RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LAGS BEHIND THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND
PRESSURE RISES. WINDS SHOULD PEAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS IS WHEN THEN BEST OVERLAP OF PRESSURE RISES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS. GUSTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY LIKELY IN
THE 30 TO 40MPH RANGE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH A 10 TO 15MPH
REDUCTION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH COLD
AIR IN PLACE, INCREASED WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. HIGH
PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE, ALONG WITH AN END TO ANY UPSLOPE SNOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH ONGOING SNOW
AND AND THEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN THE 20S. MAY HAVE
MID/LOW 30S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR
BEFORE SUNSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT A FEW PASSING
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A BRIEF CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PATTERN NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OR STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE QUICK-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT MAJORITY OF
THE REGION APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EST TUESDAY...
STARTING OUT VFR THEN CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT.
AREA RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT AND WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
00Z/7PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. NO MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -3 TO -8 RANGE AND NBM4.2 SNOW
RATIO FORECAST IS FROM 10-15:1, BOTH ORIENTED FROM COLDER
NORTHWEST TO WARMER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED.
SUBTLE IN-SITU WEDGING DEVELOP IN WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW BEGINS. IN
GENERAL THE SNOW WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE
SUNRISE AND EXPAND INTO THE VIRGNIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY
LATE MORNING. HAVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LOWERING TO MVFR AT
KLWB/KBLF AROUND 09Z/5AM, KBCB AT 10Z, KROA AT 13Z, KLYH AT 14Z
AND KDAN AT 15Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
00Z/7PM TONIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND LOCATION.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CEILING, VISIBILITY, WIND, AND TIMING OF
THE SNOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WINTER WEATHER AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THEN
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ035-043>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ003-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AMS
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