373
FXUS61 KRNK 190536
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1236 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT WILL REACH
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION TO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOW IN
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 620 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NO CHANGE TO WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FORECAST ON TRACK, MODEL TRENDS STILL FAVORING A SPLIT IN THE
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH HIGHER TOTALS FROM I-77 WEST, AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BANDING IN THE PIEDMONT MAY LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS
BUT OVERALL NO GREAT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST, SO NO CHANGES TO
THE HEADLINES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT AND WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT.
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TRACKS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
NO MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -3 TO -8 RANGE AND NBM4.2 SNOW RATIO
FORECAST IS FROM 10-15:1, BOTH ORIENTED FROM COLDER NORTHWEST TO
WARMER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED. THE PROBABILITY OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SUBTLE IN-SITU WEDGING DEVELOP IN WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW BEGINS. IN
GENERAL THE SNOW WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE
SUNRISE AND EXPAND INTO THE VIRGNIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY
LATE MORNING. HRRR/3KM NAM/FV3/ARW HAVE AN HOUR OR TWO DIFFERENCES
IN STARTING TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM AS EARLY AT 3AM/08Z
AT LEWISBURG TO AS LATE AS NOON IN DANVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON. LIKELY
THE ACTUALLY TIMING WILL FALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES PLANNED TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2) UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLY TILTED, RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LAGS BEHIND THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND
PRESSURE RISES. WINDS SHOULD PEAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS IS WHEN THEN BEST OVERLAP OF PRESSURE RISES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS. GUSTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY LIKELY IN
THE 30 TO 40MPH RANGE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH A 10 TO 15MPH
REDUCTION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH COLD
AIR IN PLACE, INCREASED WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. HIGH
PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE, ALONG WITH AN END TO ANY UPSLOPE SNOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH ONGOING SNOW
AND AND THEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN THE 20S. MAY HAVE
MID/LOW 30S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR
BEFORE SUNSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT A FEW PASSING
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A BRIEF CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PATTERN NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OR STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE QUICK-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT MAJORITY OF
THE REGION APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR LWB, BLF, AND BCB, BUT SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXPAND INTO THE
VIRGNIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY 13-15Z. CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KLWB/KBLF
AROUND 08Z THIS MORNING, KBCB/KROA AROUND 12Z, KLYH AROUND 13Z
AND KDAN AROUND 16Z. SOME IFR/LIFR VSBYS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BLF/DAN. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
LOCATION, WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS, VSBYS, WIND, AND
TIMING OF THE SNOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WINTER WEATHER AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE CURRENTLY.
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THEN
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ035-043>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ003-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AMS/EB/WP
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