898
FXUS61 KRNK 190849
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AS THE
SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY
2) SNOW WILL EXPAND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TODAY.
3) SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. CAM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A BRIEF LULL IN SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
GULF SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST OFF OF THE CAROLINAS COASTLINE. THE
GULF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE EASTERN LOUISIANA
COASTLINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST, THEN NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND UP THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS TRANSITION UP THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT DRYING
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS, WHICH HAS DROPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY ALSO CAUSE A BRIEF LULL IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTLINES, A
MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A STRONG
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -15 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES THIS COLD SIGNAL
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
DROP UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW. THIS MAY EFFECT THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS THESE SQUALLS PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL,
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WESTWARD FACING
SLOPES, AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN COLD IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
2) SNOW SHOULD TAPER BY LATE THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A 524-DAM UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500 MB WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON
THURSDAY TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD YIELD NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY EVENING.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AMIDST THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SEND WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH IS DRIVING THE ODDS
HIGHER FOR CONSIDERATION OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY TO
ALLOW THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE FOR
BURKES GARDEN AND PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
THE FLOW TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY SHOULD START A
WARMING TREND WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 40S, WHILE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY GET ABOVE FREEZING DEPENDING ON ANY LINGERING SNOW
COVER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND SOME
MOISTURE MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, SOME OF THE RAIN MAY
SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN A DRIER
DOWNSLOPING REGIME. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE
TUESDAY, DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR LWB, BLF, AND BCB, BUT SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXPAND INTO THE
VIRGNIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY 13-15Z. CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KLWB/KBLF
AROUND 08Z THIS MORNING, KBCB/KROA AROUND 12Z, KLYH AROUND 13Z
AND KDAN AROUND 16Z. SOME IFR/LIFR VSBYS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BLF/DAN. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
LOCATION, WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS, VSBYS, WIND, AND
TIMING OF THE SNOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WINTER WEATHER AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE CURRENTLY.
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THEN
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ009>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ035-
043>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ003-019-
020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...EB/AMS
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...EB/WP
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