823
FXUS61 KRNK 191827
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
127 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DOWNGRADING WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR HENRY AND STOKES. NO
CHANGES TO THE WARNING/ADVISORY STRUCTURE ELSEWHERE.
2) SNOW TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
3) SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF 460 AND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, JUST A DUSTING, OR CLOSE TO NOTHING AT ALL.
RADAR HAS INDICATED A DONUT HOLE BETWEEN MARTINSVILLE AND
GREENSBORO WITH SNOW STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND. AS SUCH,
HAVE DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO JUST AN ADVISORY FOR
HENRY AND STOKES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC, PRIMARILY EAST OF
I-85. IT APPEARS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR
CWA, SO WE MAY BE DOWNGRADING MORE COUNTIES TO JUST AN ADVISORY
WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SNOW TO AN END FOR ALL BUT
OUR WESTERN SLOPES TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA, LATE TONIGHT A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A STRONG
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -15 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES THIS COLD SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
DROP UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW. THIS MAY EFFECT THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS THESE SQUALLS PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL,
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WESTWARD FACING
SLOPES, AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN COLD IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
2) SNOW SHOULD TAPER BY LATE THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A 524-DAM UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500 MB WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON
THURSDAY TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD YIELD NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY EVENING.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AMIDST THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SEND WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH IS DRIVING THE ODDS
HIGHER FOR CONSIDERATION OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY TO
ALLOW THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE FOR
BURKES GARDEN AND PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
THE FLOW TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY SHOULD START A
WARMING TREND WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 40S, WHILE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY GET ABOVE FREEZING DEPENDING ON ANY LINGERING SNOW
COVER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND SOME
MOISTURE MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, SOME OF THE RAIN MAY
SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN A DRIER
DOWNSLOPING REGIME. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE
TUESDAY, DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
VALID TAF DUE TO RESTRICTED VSBY FROM SNOW AND LOW CIGS. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBY, BUT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ARCTIC FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE MORNING PUSH, BRINGING WITH IT THE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND EVEN SNOW SQUALLS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS STILL LOW, BUT MOST CAM GUIDANCE HAS IT PROGGED TO
IMPACT LWB AND BLF IN THE 09 TO 12 UTC TIMEFRAME, AND BCB/ROA
DURING THE 10 TO 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. BOTH LYH AND DAN ARE EXPECTED
TO TO BE IMPACTED IN THE 13 TO 16 UTC TIMEFRAME. THE PASSAGE OF
THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
LOCATION, WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS, VSBYS, WIND, AND
TIMING OF THE SNOW FOR TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVED TO MVFR, BUT THERE WILL BE LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ009>020-
022>024-032>034-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ035-
044>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
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