607
FXUS61 KRNK 191948
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
248 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DOWNGRADED WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR HENRY AND STOKES. NO
CHANGES TO THE WARNING/ADVISORY STRUCTURE ELSEWHERE.
2) SNOW TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
3) SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AMOUNTS OF 1.0 TO 2.5 HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY460 AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, JUST A DUSTING TO AN
INCH, AND CLOSE TO NOTHING AT ALL FOR SOME. RADAR HAS INDICATED
A DONUT HOLE BETWEEN MARTINSVILLE VA AND MT. AIRY NC WHERE SNOW
HAS STRUGGLED TO ACCUMULATE. AS SUCH, HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO JUST AN ADVISORY FOR HENRY AND STOKES,
WHICH ARE NOW PART OF A MUCH BIGGER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOOTPRINT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OFF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-85. IT
APPEARS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), SO WE MAY BE DOWNGRADING MORE
COUNTIES TO JUST AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING. DO NOT WANT TO TAKE
DOWN ANY OF THE HEADLINES JUST YET. THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN
WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADS TONIGHT FROM BLACK ICE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED
SO FAR, A MINOR EVENT FOR OUR CWA.
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SNOW TO AN END FOR ALL BUT
OUR WESTERN SLOPES TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA, LATE TONIGHT A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A STRONG
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -15 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES THIS COLD SIGNAL
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
DROP UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW. THIS MAY EFFECT THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS THESE SQUALLS PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL,
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WESTWARD FACING
SLOPES, AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE TEENS MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD SUGGEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DIP BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOUNTAINS, SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) END OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
2) BITTER WIND CHILLS IN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
3) MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC VIA SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING,
AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE HOLD OVER OUR REGION. A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY
EDGE EASTWARD, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG UPPER RIDGES, AND 35-40
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CALM THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS, THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE WIND CHILLS UNDER 0F ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY
MORNING.
COME SATURDAY THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD, SUPPRESSING WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT
BACK INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S, BUT EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
2) SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
A COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY, MOST
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THIS TIME, BRINGING OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE FREEZING MOST NIGHTS.
LATE TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
CANADIAN TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN MI AND THE NORTHERN OH RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO INSTIGATE A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS. UNCLEAR WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE, BUT GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND, LEANING TOWARDS RAIN WITH SOME BRIEF
SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
VALID TAF DUE TO RESTRICTED VSBY FROM SNOW AND LOW CIGS. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBY, BUT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ARCTIC FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE MORNING PUSH, BRINGING WITH IT THE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND EVEN SNOW SQUALLS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS STILL LOW, BUT MOST CAM GUIDANCE HAS IT PROGGED TO
IMPACT LWB AND BLF IN THE 09 TO 12 UTC TIMEFRAME, AND BCB/ROA
DURING THE 10 TO 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. BOTH LYH AND DAN ARE EXPECTED
TO TO BE IMPACTED IN THE 13 TO 16 UTC TIMEFRAME. THE PASSAGE OF
THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
LOCATION, WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS, VSBYS, WIND, AND
TIMING OF THE SNOW FOR TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVED TO MVFR, BUT THERE WILL BE LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ009>020-
022>024-032>034-043.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ035-
044>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM
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