527
FXUS61 KRNK 192343
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
643 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 620 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SNOW THAT IS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC
MOVES EAST TONIGHT.
2) BRIEF LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL/POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS
THURSDAY MORNING.
3) GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TOMORROW.
AREA OF SNOW STILL FALLING OVER PARTS OF THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT
WILL BE LIFTING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS TURN
NW BY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DENSER AIR MASS AND RENEWED CAA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE
REGION. EXPECT UPSLOPE SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TOMORROW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW
MORNING, EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH, WITH A LITTLE MORE
ACCUMULATING NEAR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN, THE GREENBRIER VALLEY,
AND OTHER HIGHER PEAKS IN THE BLUE RIDGE.
STRONG CAA WILL CAUSE DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS AND
20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE 30S FOR THE PIEDMONT. GUSTY WINDS
DUE TO PRESSURE RISES AND DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO SET IN
TOMORROW, SO IT WILL FEEL BETWEEN ZERO TO ABOUT 8 ABOVE IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND WILL FEEL LIKE THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AS A RESULT, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DOWNGRADED WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR HENRY AND STOKES. NO
CHANGES TO THE WARNING/ADVISORY STRUCTURE ELSEWHERE.
2) SNOW TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
3) SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AMOUNTS OF 1.0 TO 2.5 HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY460 AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, JUST A DUSTING TO AN
INCH, AND CLOSE TO NOTHING AT ALL FOR SOME. RADAR HAS INDICATED
A DONUT HOLE BETWEEN MARTINSVILLE VA AND MT. AIRY NC WHERE SNOW
HAS STRUGGLED TO ACCUMULATE. AS SUCH, HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO JUST AN ADVISORY FOR HENRY AND STOKES,
WHICH ARE NOW PART OF A MUCH BIGGER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOOTPRINT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OFF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-85. IT
APPEARS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), SO WE MAY BE DOWNGRADING MORE
COUNTIES TO JUST AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING. DO NOT WANT TO TAKE
DOWN ANY OF THE HEADLINES JUST YET. THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN
WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADS TONIGHT FROM BLACK ICE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED
SO FAR, A MINOR EVENT FOR OUR CWA.
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SNOW TO AN END FOR ALL BUT
OUR WESTERN SLOPES TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA, LATE TONIGHT A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A STRONG
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -15 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES THIS COLD SIGNAL
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
DROP UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW. THIS MAY EFFECT THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS THESE SQUALLS PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL,
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WESTWARD FACING
SLOPES, AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE TEENS MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD SUGGEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DIP BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOUNTAINS, SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) END OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
2) BITTER WIND CHILLS IN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
3) MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC VIA SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING, AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE HOLD OVER
OUR REGION. A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD, BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40-45 MPH
ALONG UPPER RIDGES, AND 35-40 ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL CALM THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS, THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE WIND CHILLS UNDER 0F ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
FRIDAY MORNING.
COME SATURDAY THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL
BE OVERHEAD, SUPPRESSING WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A BIT BACK INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S, BUT EXPECT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
2) SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
A COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY,
MOST LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THIS TIME, BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING MOST NIGHTS.
LATE TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
CANADIAN TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN MI AND THE NORTHERN OH
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INSTIGATE A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. UNCLEAR WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE, BUT GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND, LEANING
TOWARDS RAIN WITH SOME BRIEF SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
VALID TAF DUE TO RESTRICTED VSBY FROM SNOW AND LOW CIGS. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBY, BUT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS ARRIVAL MAY IMPACT THE MORNING PUSH, BRINGING WITH IT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND EVEN SNOW SQUALLS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS STILL LOW, BUT MOST CAM GUIDANCE HAS IT
PROGGED TO IMPACT LWB AND BLF IN THE 09 TO 12 UTC TIMEFRAME, AND
BCB/ROA DURING THE 10 TO 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. BOTH LYH AND DAN ARE
EXPECTED TO TO BE IMPACTED IN THE 13 TO 16 UTC TIMEFRAME. THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
LOCATION, WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS, VSBYS, WIND, AND
TIMING OF THE SNOW FOR TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVED TO MVFR, BUT THERE WILL BE LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ009>020-
022>024-032>034-043.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ035-
044>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM/SH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page