210
FXUS61 KRNK 200814
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ARRIVE THIS
MORNING, AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLOW WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S LIKELY BY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND BLACK ICE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST.
2) BRIEF LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL/POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS
THIS MORNING.
3) GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TODAY, WITH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
4) DOWNGRADED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WARNING/ADVISORY
STRUCTURE ELSEWHERE.
KRLX RADAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THIS
BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IN SE WEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS
WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ARE TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FROM LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. THIS ARCTIC FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -15
TO -20 DEGREES, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS BAND OF
SNOW COULD PRODUCE SNOW SQUALL CONDITIONS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA
AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALONG WITH THE ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-35 MPH FORECAST. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S
TO TEENS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO -10 DEGREES. WHILE AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING, AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LOOK TO CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING FOR HIGHS TODAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT A WARMING
TREND SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARDS.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL START QUITE COLD WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS OFFSHORE, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON SATURDAY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MILDER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE THE
PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DURING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL HEAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL REACH ITS CLIMAX WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MEANWHILE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND SOME MOISTURE
MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CHANCE WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FADING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IF TEMPERATURES DIP
LOW ENOUGH DURING BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF THE
RAIN COULD SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DRY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
VALID TAF DUE TO RESTRICTED VSBY FROM SNOW AND LOW CIGS. WHILE
THERE IS A LULL IN THE SNOW CURRENTLY, AN ADDITIONAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH
WILL RETURN MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
ARRIVAL MAY IMPACT THE MORNING PUSH, BRINGING WITH IT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND EVEN SNOW SQUALLS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS STILL LOW, BUT MOST CAM GUIDANCE HAS IT
PROGGED TO IMPACT LWB AND BLF IN THE 09 TO 12 UTC TIMEFRAME, AND
BCB/ROA DURING THE 10 TO 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. BOTH LYH AND DAN ARE
EXPECTED TO TO BE IMPACTED IN THE 13 TO 16 UTC TIMEFRAME. THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS EARLY
MORNING SNOW SQUALLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT BLF,
LWB, AND BCB THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, BEFORE
COMPLETELY ENDING FOR BCB AROUND 0 UTC. LWB AND BLF WILL LIKELY
SEE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE THROUGH 12 UTC
FRIDAY BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING AT LWB
AND BLF DURING THIS TIME. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY 03 UTC FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
LOCATION, WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS, VSBYS, WIND, AND
TIMING OF THE SNOW FOR TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001>006-018>020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ044-507.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...EB/PM
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...EB/SH
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