187
FXUS61 KRNK 201759
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1259 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CONTINUED
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CLOUDS
HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED MAINLY TO
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. HERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF TWO ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS, MAINLY JUST FLURRIES WITH PERHAPS A
DUSTING. COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TONIGHT. THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE WILL
RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -5F TO -10F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH 20S AND LOW 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW
40S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT A WARMING
TREND SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARDS.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL START QUITE COLD WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS OFFSHORE, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON SATURDAY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MILDER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE THE
PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT A WARMING
TREND SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARDS.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL START QUITE COLD WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS OFFSHORE, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON SATURDAY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MILDER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE THE
PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DURING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL HEAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL REACH ITS CLIMAX WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MEANWHILE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND SOME MOISTURE
MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CHANCE WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FADING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IF TEMPERATURES DIP
LOW ENOUGH DURING BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF THE
RAIN COULD SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DRY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE PROGRESSING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. ONGOING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM TNB TO BLF THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR AT TIMES FOR BCB AND LWB
WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, CONDITIONS
NOW APPEAR TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
BLUEFIELD WILL LIKELY BREAK ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY RISEN
ABOVE THEIR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM. THE RECORD AT BLACKSBURG WILL
NOT BE BROKEN EITHER, AS THE READING AT MIDNIGHT WAS 21F.
THURSDAY 02/20/2025
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 74 2018 -7 2015 22 1972 53 2018
KDAN 75 1930 3 2015 24 2015 63 1939
KLYH 76 1930 -11 2015 18 2015 59 1939
KROA 76 2018 0 2015 22 2015 54 1971
KRNK 70 2018 -5 2015 20 1896 54 1939
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG
CLIMATE...BMG
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