827
FXUS61 KRNK 202034
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CONTINUED
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CLOUDS
HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED MAINLY TO
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. HERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF TWO ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS, MAINLY JUST FLURRIES WITH PERHAPS A
DUSTING. COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TONIGHT. THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE WILL
RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -5F TO -10F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH 20S AND LOW 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW
40S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND'S WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS ITS EASTERN EDGE ENTERS THE
REGION, WINDS WILL CALM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AS IT PASSES BY ANY CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL BE SUPPRESSED.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE BOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND THUS WAA. BY
SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
AND 40S WEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE EVENT TUESDAY
2) NEXT BIG SYSTEM POSSIBLE THURSDAY
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS FOR THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL. ON
TUESDAY, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE APPALACHIANS AND INTRODUCING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, BUT DOESN'T PURPORT TO BE A
PARTICULARLY STRONG OR WIDESPREAD EVENT. WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FROM THE WEEKEND, MOST OF THIS UPSLOPE WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN, THOUGH SOME BRIEF NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER.
FOR THURSDAY, MOST GUIDANCE HAS A LOW AND SHORTWAVE OF VARYING
INTENSITY FORMING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVING INTO KY AND
TN, AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN VA. DETAILS AT THIS LENGTH OF
FORECAST ARE TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN, BUT THE GENERAL TREND TOWARD
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SUGGESTS A
MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVENT.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE PROGRESSING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. ONGOING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM TNB TO BLF THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR AT TIMES FOR BCB AND LWB
WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, CONDITIONS
NOW APPEAR TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
BLUEFIELD WILL LIKELY BREAK ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY RISEN
ABOVE THEIR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM. THE RECORD AT BLACKSBURG WILL
NOT BE BROKEN EITHER, AS THE READING AT MIDNIGHT WAS 21F.
THURSDAY 02/20/2025
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 74 2018 -7 2015 22 1972 53 2018
KDAN 75 1930 3 2015 24 2015 63 1939
KLYH 76 1930 -11 2015 18 2015 59 1939
KROA 76 2018 0 2015 22 2015 54 1971
KRNK 70 2018 -5 2015 20 1896 54 1939
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG
CLIMATE...BMG
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