334
FXUS61 KRNK 210515
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1212 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES, SO
WILL LET THE WINTER WARNING EXPIRE AT 1AM.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VA, THROUGH SOUTHEAST WV, AND SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHWEST NC, AND ANOTHER HALF TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY START TO WANE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SNOW MAINLY ONLY OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV BY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MAIN STORY REMAINS THE COLD,
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE EAST, AND SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE WEST, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING WIND
CHILLS IN THE 0 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE MORNING. KEEP PETS
INDOORS TONIGHT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, AND DRESS IN LAYERS IF
NEEDING TO GO OUTSIDE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CLOUDS
HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED MAINLY TO
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. HERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF TWO ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS, MAINLY JUST FLURRIES WITH PERHAPS A
DUSTING. COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TONIGHT. THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE WILL
RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -5F TO -10F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH 20S AND LOW 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW
40S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND'S WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS ITS EASTERN EDGE ENTERS THE
REGION, WINDS WILL CALM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AS IT PASSES BY ANY CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL BE SUPPRESSED.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE BOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND THUS WAA. BY
SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
AND 40S WEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE EVENT TUESDAY
2) NEXT BIG SYSTEM POSSIBLE THURSDAY
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS FOR THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL. ON
TUESDAY, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE APPALACHIANS AND INTRODUCING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, BUT DOESN'T PURPORT TO BE A
PARTICULARLY STRONG OR WIDESPREAD EVENT. WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FROM THE WEEKEND, MOST OF THIS UPSLOPE WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN, THOUGH SOME BRIEF NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER.
FOR THURSDAY, MOST GUIDANCE HAS A LOW AND SHORTWAVE OF VARYING
INTENSITY FORMING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVING INTO KY AND
TN, AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN VA. DETAILS AT THIS LENGTH OF
FORECAST ARE TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN, BUT THE GENERAL TREND TOWARD
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SUGGESTS A
MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVENT.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1213 AM EST FRIDAY...
MVFR CIGS AND AT TIMES VSBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 12Z. BCB WILL BE AROUND 3KFT CIGS WITH FLURRIES
THROUGH 14Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO
THE MORNING, BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO SCATTER/CLEAR OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ007.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...AS/BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AS/WP
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