383
FXUS61 KRNK 210650
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH THE COLD AIRMASS STAYING
AROUND INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE, MODERATING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 144 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FLURRIES END THIS MORNING.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO GRADUALLY END THIS
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO DAWN, SO
NO CHANGES NEED TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY ALLOWING
FOR ANY MOUNTAIN STRATOCU TO ERODE. MOST WILL SEE SUNSHINE BUT
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EAST.
WIND WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
2) A WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD CROSS OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY TO PROVIDE PASSING CLOUDS, HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A MORE
PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH MORE SUNSHINE PUSHING HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WEAKEN AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, BUT THE LINGERING DRY AIR WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP EVEN HIGHER TOWARDS THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SOME MOISTURE MAY
REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE DAWN ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY.
2) THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN MAY ARRIVE BY THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC DURING TUESDAY TO BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH SNOW IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SWITCHING TO RAIN. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DRIER AND WARMER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. THE RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO SNOW AGAIN IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY
DRY, BUT IT WILL EXIT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF
RAIN SEEM FAVORABLE ON THURSDAY, BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF
SOME OF THE RAIN MIXES WITH WET SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1213 AM EST FRIDAY...
MVFR CIGS AND AT TIMES VSBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 12Z. BCB WILL BE AROUND 3KFT CIGS WITH FLURRIES
THROUGH 14Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO
THE MORNING, BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO SCATTER/CLEAR OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AS/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page