374
FXUS61 KRNK 211953
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
253 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND PROMOTING
FAIR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...FEATURING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WINDS
DIMINISH IT SHOULD MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
ASIDE FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING 4 TO 8 DEGREES SHY OF
THE SEASONAL NORM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 20S,
SNOW COVERED AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY, HELPING TO BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 60S EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SEND A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
REGION.
2) PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH EACH FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN.
3) WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WHILE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIMITED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD PEAK IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE TREND OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE COLDEST AIR, SENDING TEMPERATURES
BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. P-TYPE WITH EACH FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE
RAIN, BUT COULD SEE SOME FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN (ABOVE
4000 FEET).
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
MVFR CIGS LINGER OVER WV AND INTO THE OH VALLEY, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS VFR OVER AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AT SUNSET, FOLLOWED BY A CALM
CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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