550
FXUS61 KRNK 212348
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
648 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROMOTING
FAIR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) BITTERLY COLD AND CLEAR. BRING PETS IN.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE PIEDMONT BY MORNING.
LITTLE WIND IS EXPECTED, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD.
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...FEATURING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WINDS
DIMINISH IT SHOULD MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
ASIDE FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING 4 TO 8 DEGREES SHY OF
THE SEASONAL NORM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 20S,
SNOW COVERED AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. A WARM FRONT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY, HELPING TO BRING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 60S
EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SEND A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
REGION.
2) PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH EACH FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN.
3) WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WHILE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIMITED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE TREND OF WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
WILL HAVE THE COLDEST AIR, SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS. P-TYPE WITH EACH FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN,
BUT COULD SEE SOME FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN (ABOVE 4000
FEET).
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST FRIDAY...
MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY MOVED NORTH OF BLF AND LWB. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING, AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN SLIGHTLY GUSTY
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG AT BLF BETWEEN 22/06Z AND 22/10Z
THAT IS BEING HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP. EXPECT INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, BUT NO PRECIP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/SH
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