458
FXUS61 KRNK 270457
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WINDS ABATE THIS EVENING.
2) INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
HUMIDITIES ARE SLOWLY COMING UP AS TEMPERATURES DROP POST-SUNSET
TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS ARE PERSISTING, WITH SOME TAF SITES
STILL GUSTING TO 20 KTS. THIS SHOULD QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL ENHANCE RADIATIVE COOLING, AND HASTEN THE DECOUPLING
PROCESS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING,
THOUGH BROUGHT DOWN TEMPERATURES A SMIDGEN AS THEY WERE ALREADY
BELOW FORECASTED VALUES.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM SOME MOUNTAIN FAIR WEATHER CU, SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS AFTERNOON THEN MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING
BEFORE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THU AFTERNOON. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, KEPT POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT, EXCEPT MAYBE THE FRINGE OF OUR SE WV/FAR SW VA COUNTIES
BY 7PM WHERE A SHOWER MAY OCCUR (15%).
LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AREAWIDE. EVEN THOUGH THE
OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAS NOT
STARTED, STILL THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY WANT TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS TONIGHT, AS SHOULD HAVE FROST MOST
PLACES BY MORNING.
SHOULD BE MILDER TOMORROW AS FLOW TURNS WEST THEN SOUTHWEST,
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL, FROM MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT
COOLER HIGHER RIDGES OF WV.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
2) A WARM FRONT MAY OFFER A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY, BUT DRIER AIR TO THE EAST
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE MOISTURE TO JUST SPRINKLES IN THE PIEDMONT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHOULD
BRING CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A PREFRONTAL LINE OF
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER BY TUESDAY.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD CROSS THE BLUE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. AFTER A
DRY SLOT HALTS THE MOISTURE DURING SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND A FEW SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POSSIBLE SKIP WHERE
MORNING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD JUMP THE BLUE RIDGE AND
REFORM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY THE AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE WIND SHOULD TURN TOWARDS THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL TAPER TO LINGERING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE FADING COMPLETELY AROUND
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN
LOWER ON TUESDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TO
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN 5-10
KNOTS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNSET.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR TO
THE MOUNTAINS THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
EXPECT VFR THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH SUB- VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1033 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...RED FLAG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND ROANOKE VALLEY UNTIL EARLY EVENING...
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER EVERYWHERE ELSE...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT
ENOUGH OF SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF VA TO THE ROANOKE VALLEYS TO HAVE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. PER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THE
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GOING ELSEWHERE.
RH RECOVERY POOR TONIGHT, WITH LOW RH TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...VFJ/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...EB/WP
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