289
FXUS61 KRNK 270702
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
302 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY, LEADING TO
FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT AGAIN
TODAY FOR NORTH CAROLINA.
ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS, THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS REMAINED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW 500MB HEIGHTS TO
RISE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START TO WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE COMING DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT; HOWEVER, WITH LOW RHS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN
THE 20-25% RANGE, A SLIGHT ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT STILL
EXISTS. GIVEN THIS THREAT, ALL NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. OVERALL,
EXPECT A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY
BECOMING CLOUDIER THROUGH THE EVENING, AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY.
3. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOOK AT THE 26 MAR 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHEAST TO JUST ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE GULF
COAST STATES, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DEEPENS.
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION BACKS SOUTHWEST A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OVER FLORIDA, THE
FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW SHIFTS A LITTLE SOUTH, AND AN
ARCTIC LOW DEEPENS OVER JAMES BAY. FLOW OVER OUR REGION CONTINUE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARCING
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, EAST OF SC/GA. FOR SATURDAY,
LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION. THE CENTRAL US LOW
AND FRONTAL POSITIONS SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, WITH THE WARM FRONT
NOW NORTH OF OUR REGION NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ITS WARM FRONT MAY MORPH MORE INTO A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER LOW TO FORM ALONG IT NEAR NY/PA.
A LOOK AT THE 26 MAR 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, REACHING
ROUGHLY +10C TO +12C, NE-SW, BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VALUES
CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND +12C FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. VALUES AROUND THE +12C MARK CORRESPOND TO THE 90 TO
97.5 PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATE. FOR SATURDAY LITTLE
CHANGE IN VALUES IS EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY NIGHT, VALUES SLIDE
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND +10C ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
VALUES INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND +12C TO PERHAPS +13C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. EACH DAY
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL COME FROM TWO POTENTIAL SOURCES. FIRST ON FRIDAY, JUST
WHERE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER, OR NEAR, THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PLAY
A ROLE IN WHAT IF ANY RAIN SHOWERS THE REGION EXPERIENCES. THE
BEST MEAN INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM THE NAEFS POINTS
TOWARD THE REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460 HAS HAVING THE
BEST POTENTIAL, WITH SE WV HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL. OUTPUT
FROM THE 26 MAR 19Z DESI USING THE NGM-CONUS DATASET PLACES A 15
TO 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS SAME REGION.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO A RAIN-FREE DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING FARTHER NORTH, AND BOTH THE APPROACHING CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT.
ON SUNDAY, THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO STARTING SEEING BETTER MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM. WITH AN AREA
OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW, THIS FEATURE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AS
IT CONTINUES ITS PUSH TOWARDS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO
THESE TWO FEATURES. THE SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. OUTPUT FROM DESI PLACES A 10 TO 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER OVER SE WV SUNDAY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE ON MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. 2. DRIER AND COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH
ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. 3. CONTINUED COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS.
A LOOK AT THE 26 MAR 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OF A JAMES BAY ARCTIC LOW MERGING
WITH EAST BOUND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS IS NEARLY ZONAL.
ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN AXIS OF THE JAMES BAY LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LOW/TROUGH MAKES LIMITED PROGRESS EASTWARD. WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS, SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY START
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. ON WEDNESDAY,
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW/TROUGH MAKES A BIT MORE PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARD WA/OR/CA, AND THE CENTRAL CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
REACHES THE GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, REACHING THE AREA OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO HEAD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY, REACHING
EASTERN VA BY THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BUT STILL CURVING SOUTHWEST TO INTERSECT
THE SOUTHEAST US NEAR SC/GA, WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO OVER NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY PIVOT SLIGHTLY NORTH IN
REPSONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH HEADING FARTHER EAST, AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO OUR AREA.
A LOOK AT THE 26 MAR 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
REACHING +7C TO +12C, NW-SE, BY THE EARLY EVENING. VALUES CONTINUE
TO TREND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT, REACHING +4C TO +8C, N-S, BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. VALUES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT WITH THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION CHANGING TO NE-SW. ON
WEDNESDAY, VALUES HEADING UPWARD AGAIN, REACHING +7C TO +10C,
NE-SW.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFER THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS
PLENTY OF TIME FOR TIMING TO CHANGE, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS
THE FRONT REACHING EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. GIVEN THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING, AND EASTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN REVIEWING THE OUTPUT FROM DESI HAS A 10
TO 20 PROBABILITY OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 460, WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS EAST OF INTERSTATE-77 AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 58. OTHER THAN
SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SE WV LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD YIELD COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE. IF IT IS TO IMPACT OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WESTERN SECTIONS WOULD HAVE THE BEST PROBABILITY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS LOW TO MODERATE.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN 5-10
KNOTS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNSET.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR TO
THE MOUNTAINS THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
EXPECT VFR THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH SUB- VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER NORTH CAROLINA...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 25, AND WINDS WILL BE
MARGINAL AT AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 10-15 MPH ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. PER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES AND THE STATE OF
NORTH CAROLINA, WILL KEEP THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
GOING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...EB/WP
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