557
FXUS61 KRNK 271729
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
2) A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF U.S. 460 FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
SHOWERS THIS EVENING, AND TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FORECAST. STILL
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460
THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-64 IN WV.
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL PICK UP SOME THU AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. AFTER LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT FOR MOST,
SOME 30S DEEPER VALLEYS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP INTO UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FRIDAY. IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS LONGER, TEMPS COULD BE
COOLER MAINLY OVER THE ALLEGHANYS EAST TOWARD LYNCHBURG.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY SATURDAY, SHOWERS ARRIVE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMEST ON SUNDAY.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
ADVECTING WARMER AIR AND MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND 500MB
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. THAT ALL BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY. SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT THOUGH LOOKS MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE
AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
WEST, AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE PIEDMONT BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH
THE ADDITIONAL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE REGION, CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
2. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE, WITH A COUPLE
SYSTEMS CROSSING THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL US,
AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF DURING
PEAK HEATING, MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MODELS DO STILL EXHIBIT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL US LATE IN
THE WEEK, AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT OVERALL, IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. WILL SEE
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STAY MAINLY WEST/NORTHWEST OF
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR TO
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT
VFR THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH SUB- VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A
LINE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER NC AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 15 TO 25, AND WINDS WILL BE
MARGINAL AT AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 10-20 MPH. PER
COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES AND FOREST SERVICE OFFICIALS,
HAVE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...EB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...EB/WP
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