833
FXUS61 KRNK 281158
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
2) A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
3) ENHANCED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND NW NORTH CAROLINA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THIS IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA
THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LOOKS TO STAY DRY TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH'S IN THE 25-30% RANGE WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
AND NW NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THAT FUELS MAY DRY OUT FASTER
LEADING TO FIRES HAVING THE ABILITY TO QUICKLY SPREAD GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. FOR THESE REASONS, A FIRE DANGER SPS HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. OVERALL, TODAY
WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY FOR MOST, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY SATURDAY, SHOWERS ARRIVE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY,
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ADVECTING
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80
SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY LOWER SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST,
AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
2. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE, WITH A COUPLE SYSTEMS CROSSING
THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL US, AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO 60S,
AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF DURING PEAK HEATING,
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MODELS EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL US LATE IN
THE WEEK, AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT OVERALL, IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 620 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. WILL
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUD THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STAY MAINLY
WEST/NORTHWEST OF BLF/LWB THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A LINE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH
OF THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...DS/PM
LONG TERM...DS/PM
AVIATION...EB/RCS
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