663
FXUS61 KRNK 281722
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 113 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY.
EXPECT MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUDS MAINLY OF
THE HIGH VARIETY WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
STILL WITH THESE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S FOR MOST, RISING INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
SATURDAY, EXCEPT SOME 60S IN THE HIGHER RIDGES AND A FEW URBAN
AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REACH AROUND 80.
ANY PRECIP MAY BE SPRINKLES OVER THE ALLEGHANYS ONCE AGAIN BUT
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/MS VALLEY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WILL STILL SEE CONTINUED WARM AIR AND HUMIDITY
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE EAST. THE INCREASING MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A MORE
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BEING THE PEAK HEATING
OF THE DAY, WHICH LEADS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
300 J/KG TO NEAR 800 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT AND VA SOUTHSIDE DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS, IN THE LOW 60S,
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION, WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY, TREND WARMER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
2. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR TUESDAY, BUT
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. 500MB TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE
WEST, AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THAT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND
WARMER AFTER MIDWEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OR JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES, LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWINGS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, SO MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER, MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW INCREASE AFTER MIDWEEK, SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT LOOKS TO BE EITHER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN LESSEN AFTER 00Z, PICKING UP
AGAIN BY 15-18Z SATURDAY. WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MORE COVERAGE
LATE SAT MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MOISTURE INCREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
BACK INTO THE AREA, MAY BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A LINE
OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH OF THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...WP
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