185
FXUS61 KRNK 290820
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
420 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
15 TO 20 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES, AND 20 TO 25 MPH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENTLY MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY IN THE 30-35% RANGE, THERE IS STILL AN
ELEVATED FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND FOR NORTH CAROLINA WHERE A FIRE BAN IS STILL
PRESENT. GIVEN THIS THREAT FROM LOW RH VALUES, INCREASING WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
LEADING TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS, A SPS HAS AGAIN BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE INCREASED SPREAD OF FIRES. OUTSIDE OF THIS FIRE THREAT,
TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR SOME WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY.
THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. CLOSER TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A SOUTHERN
STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WILL STILL SEE CONTINUED WARM AIR AND HUMIDITY
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE EAST. THE INCREASING MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A MORE
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BEING THE PEAK HEATING
OF THE DAY, WHICH LEADS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
300 J/KG TO NEAR 800 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT AND VA SOUTHSIDE DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS, IN THE LOW 60S,
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION, WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY, TREND WARMER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
2. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR TUESDAY, BUT
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. 500MB TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE
WEST, AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THAT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND
WARMER AFTER MIDWEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OR JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES, LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWINGS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, SO MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER, MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW INCREASE AFTER MIDWEEK, SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT LOOKS TO BE EITHER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY THE 00 TO 03 UTC TIMEFRAME FOR ALL TERMINALS.
DURING THIS TIME, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS WEEKENDS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD; HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS LOOK TO APPROACH BLF AND BCB JUST
AFTER 06 UTC ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MOISTURE INCREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
BACK INTO THE AREA, MAY BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A LINE
OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH OF THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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