516
FXUS61 KRNK 291024
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
624 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
15 TO 20 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES, AND 20 TO 25 MPH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENTLY MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY IN THE 30-35% RANGE, THERE IS STILL AN
ELEVATED FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND FOR NORTH CAROLINA WHERE A FIRE BAN IS STILL
PRESENT. GIVEN THIS THREAT FROM LOW RH VALUES, INCREASING WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
LEADING TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS, A SPS HAS AGAIN BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE INCREASED SPREAD OF FIRES. OUTSIDE OF THIS FIRE THREAT,
TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR SOME WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY.
THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. CLOSER TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A SOUTHERN
STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONG BROAD HIGH WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR
THROUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS IT UNDERGOES OCCLUSION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND PASS THROUGH
THE AREA MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT OF THIS SETUP
WILL BE SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY, A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA DURING
PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY, AND
INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT WE EXPERIENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD STATES, INCLUDING ALL OF WV, VA, AND NC. OUR PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND QUIET DOWN THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FEW
MODERATE GUSTS OF WIND WILL LAST UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND THE HIGH IS MORE OVERHEAD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 445 AM PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LATE WEEK SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE. ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH FROM RUN TO RUN,
TIMING HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT OUR AREA. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. AS WE ARE SAFELY INTO SPRING, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, INSTABILITY IS MORE CERTAIN. AS SUCH,
THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT LOOKS
TO BREAK OVER HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST, REMAINING
MOISTURE COULD ALIGN ITSELF ZONALLY AND PERMIT SHOWERS TO PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, GETTING INTO THE 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 603 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY THE 00 TO 03 UTC TIMEFRAME FOR ALL TERMINALS.
DURING THIS TIME, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS WEEKENDS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD; HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS LOOK TO APPROACH BLF, BCB, DAN, AND
LWB JUST BEFORE 12 UTC ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MOISTURE INCREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
BACK INTO THE AREA, MAY BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A LINE
OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH OF THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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