542
FXUS61 KRNK 291836
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
236 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED FIRE
DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.
2. SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WEST AND SOUTH.
CONTINUED WAA WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TODAY AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE ONLY
POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY WOULD BE PARTS OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS IF A WEAK IMPULSE FOCUSES ANY ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS STILL HAVE A FIRE DANGER CONCERN MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO NW NC SO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONTINUES ACCORDINGLY INTO THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SUNDAY. PRECIP ONSET COULD BE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE WEST
AND NEAR SUNRISE FOR THE CENTRAL CWA GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON THE NAM THETA SFC. ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
VALUES ARE MEAGER AT BEST SO ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION. QPF TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH TOPS ABOUT A HALF INCH FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND MAYBE SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH OR TWO IN SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH STRONGER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
2. DRY, BUT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR GETS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT TRACKS TOWARDS AND THEN THROUGH
THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE
LATE MONDAY, AFTER 8 PM AT THIS TIME, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MORNING SHOWERS AND
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY, AND
THUS REDUCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH, WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE, DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60S, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITHIN THIS
HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES PER MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT, A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER
AND DRY AREAWIDE, WITH WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH INCREASES OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
US THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY, WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WEDGING ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
AREA FROM AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS, BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, KICKING
OFF A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US, WHICH WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, BUT HAVE
STARTED TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS IT
MOVES EAST AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, AS
THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US,
AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. HOW THIS INTERACTION PLAYS OUT
WILL INFLUENCE THE IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
COULD MEAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS, AND GIVEN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE, AND THE CONTRIBUTION OF ANY DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION, THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SOME ALTO AND CIRRUS CIGS.
EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY INTO MAINLY
MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. RAIN
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THIS
PERIOD FROM THE WEST AND SOME REDUCED VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW BUT BLF/LWB COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS INITIALLY SW GUSTING 18-22 KTS FOR MOST SITES, THEN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING BACK UP SUNDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
COULD HAVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
NORTH OF THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AB/EB
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