625
FXUS61 KRNK 300637
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WERE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, IN
ADDITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AIR PROVIDING A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM AIR RETURNS LATER IN
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
2. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST
COURTESY OF CLOCKWISE WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE EAST COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
PROMOTING MOISTURE ADVECTION, SO WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALBEIT LIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY, SO NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER HAZARDS UNTIL THEN. QPF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
2. DRY, BUT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE FRONT TRACKS
TOWARDS AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY, AFTER 8 PM AT THIS
TIME, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MORNING SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY, AND THUS REDUCE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH, WITH
BULK SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITHIN THIS
HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES PER
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT, A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER
AND DRY AREAWIDE, WITH WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH INCREASES OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
US THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY, WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WEDGING ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
AREA FROM AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS, BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, KICKING
OFF A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US, WHICH WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, BUT HAVE
STARTED TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS IT
MOVES EAST AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, AS
THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US,
AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. HOW THIS INTERACTION PLAYS OUT
WILL INFLUENCE THE IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
COULD MEAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS, AND GIVEN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE, AND THE CONTRIBUTION OF ANY DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION, THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYER
BETWEEN 6-10KFT WITH SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTION,
BUT THERE MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ATTMS DUE TO DOWNDRAFT FROM THE
PASSING SHOWERS AND PRESENCE OF VIRGA. ATTM THINKING SURFACE
GUSTS OF 20 KTS.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT, SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
COULD HAVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH OF
THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM
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