016
FXUS61 KRNK 301106
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WERE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, IN
ADDITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AIR PROVIDING A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM AIR RETURNS LATER IN
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
2. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST
COURTESY OF CLOCKWISE WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE EAST COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
PROMOTING MOISTURE ADVECTION, SO WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALBEIT LIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY, SO NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER HAZARDS UNTIL THEN. QPF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
2) DRY AND COOLER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS LIKELY THAT BEFORE DAY'S
END, EVERY PIECE OF THE REGION WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT AHEAD OF THE TRUE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT, BUT THAT WILL MAKE ITS TIMING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK
HEATING. AS SUCH, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH
WHICH TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR VALUES COULD BE IN EXCESS OF
40KTS AS WELL, PROVIDING MORE INGREDIENTS REQUIRED FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH THIS EVENT, THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER THE PIEDMONT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN. WHILE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
MORE SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY. SOME GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 50S AND
60S.
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA, AS WELL AS SOME PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL US LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE, BUT HAVE STARTED TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONALLY ORIENTED AS IT MOVES EAST AND AFTER THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, THE BOUNDARY WILL BE HELD
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. HOW THIS INTERACTION
PLAYS OUT WILL INFLUENCE THE IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA,
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH IT BECOMES STALLED. A MORE
ZONALLY ORIENTED AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT COULD MEAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS, AND
GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE, AND THE
CONTRIBUTION OF ANY DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TODAY ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYER
BETWEEN 6-10KFT WITH SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTION,
BUT THERE MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ATTMS DUE TO DOWNDRAFT FROM THE
PASSING SHOWERS AND PRESENCE OF VIRGA. ATTM THINKING SURFACE
GUSTS OF 20 KTS.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR OVERNIGHT, SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH OF
THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AS/VFJ
AVIATION...PM
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